Well That Went Well (Except for the One Thing)

Jose Fernandez tied a franchise record by striking out nine opposing batters on Opening Day, something only Josh Beckett had done before (in 2004). But when we think back on 2014 Opening Day years from now, our first thought will probably be about Jose's mom and abuela laughing at his weak third-inning groundout: 

click to embiggen, via

It was a good first start for the reigning Rookie of the Year, however. Here's his line in the Marlins' 10-1 win over Colorado:

6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K, 0.262 WPA

Last Miami did not score their tenth run of the season until Game 5. This can mean only one thing, as Ted texted me after the game: the Marlins will probably be shut out over the next 3 games.

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Ten Very Specific Predictions for 2014

It's that time again...

1. Giancarlo Stanton will not be traded before the July 31 deadline, as the Marlins will attempt (probably in vain) to work out a long-term deal with him in the offseason.
2. In fact, the Marlins won't make any major trades this season. They don't have any big contracts to unload (except for Jarrod Saltalamacchia if you think $7M a year qualifies as "outrageous"), and will hesitate to part with any of their young pitchers barring a preposterously dumb offer. 
3. All you assholes will stop complaining about the Marlins Park home run sculpture and learn to appreciate its kitschy charm (not really, but a man can dream, can't he?).
4. Though the Marlins surprised many baseball observers by promoting Jose Fernandez and Christian Yelich to the big club last season, they won't repeat that with recent first-round picks Colin Moran and Andrew Heaney. With Heaney, the reason will likely be the team's surfeit of quality pitchers, while Moran will be held back by the fact that the Marlins won't be contenders in 2014 and preventing Moran's service clock from starting too early will save the team money three years from now. 
5. The Marlins' "revamped" infield will hit so poorly that Michael Hill will take the unprecedented step of signing Jose Fernandez' abuela to a contract. She'll slash .180/.450/.095, generating a ton of walks thanks to her Eddie Gaedel-like strike zone. 
6. Marcell Ozuna will be the Marlin most likely to appear in a Misadventures of the Tangerine Troops post this season (based solely on these two gems from 2013).
7. David Samson's efforts to increase attendance by quickening the pace of games won't the intended effect, but it hey, we won't have to watch as many hours of bad baseball, so we'll be okay with it.
8. This will finally be the year that a Giancarlo Stanton #Monsterdong finally kills someone. It'll be worth it, though.
9. Tino Martinez, still clearly not over his firing last season, will be seen outside Marlins Park holding a boombox iPhone over his head blasting Peter Gabriel's "In Your Eyes" in early May. It will be the saddest reenactment of that scene Say Anything ever.
10. 73-89, 4th in NL East (thanks to a very lifeless Phillies campaign), 

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The 2014 Marlins Macropreview

Opening Day is finally upon us, and as we do every year, the Diehards have scoured the interwebs for all the 2014 projections we can find. We averaged the projections together so as to identify the conventional wisdom about the team heading into the season (we're not exactly Nate Silver, but we do recognize the power of aggregating different projection models into a kind of supermodel).

Like last season, the baseball world expects little of the Marlins (not that we blame them). Though the Marlins should have a deep starting rotation and respectable bullpen, their offense remains iffy beyond Giancarlo Stanton (and to a lesser extent Christian Yelich). Taken together, the projections have the Marlins as a 70-win team, with little variance. Here are the projections:

This is a case where the numbers match what is generally expected of the team, a modest improvement over last year's 62-win total, but nothing to inspire hopes of a playoff berth. If the Marlins wildly outperform expectations, they could flirt with a .500 record. But if injuries pile up, this team could lose 100 games just as easily.

Indeed, 2015 remains the earliest hope for a competitive season, but Marlins fans still have the benefit of watching Jose Fernandez and Stanton (for now). Those two, at least, should provide for some fun times this season.

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Area Man Predicts Sky Will Fall in 2014

"What, me worry?"

Good news, everyone! Jeffrey Loria has finally released David Samson from his underground lair:

"We're getting ready for another season, and we're going to win more," Samson said. "I promise you this, we're not going to lose 100 games next year, not even close. Look what the Red Sox did. They had the same record we did in '12. They turned it around to be in the World Series in '13. Well, it's time for us to do the same. That's why we didn't book that concert in October. Why would we ever book something when we should be and will be playing playoff games?"

On one hand, very few teams lose 100 games two seasons in a row, so that part of Samson's prediction is not far fetched at all.

On the other hand, the Red Sox did a major roster overhaul last winter and had a payroll above $100 million this year, neither of which are going to be copied by the Marlins. Then there is the fact that the 2012 Red Sox weren't that bad. Sure, they lost 93 games, but their run differential would have predicted an 88-loss season (according to Baseball Reference). Miami's 2013 run differential was much worse (-133 to -72), predicting a 98-loss season.

Of course, with the Marlins pitching staff as it currently stands, it would take merely an average offense to improve the team's record next season. But the 2013 offense was historically bad (as we noted in our year-end round-up), so there is a lot of ground to make up.

Business consultants have a mantra: under-promise, over-deliver. Samson often does the opposite (as does Loria, who is the king of over-promising), and this case is no different. Nothing to see here folks, move along now...

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