Statistical Anomoly Alert!

Jorge Cantu reacts after striking out against Scott Olsen on Saturday (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

This week, ESPN.com's Jayson Stark informed us that the Marlins did something unprecedented:

On Sunday, they struck out 13 times against Johan Santana -- and beat him. In their next game Tuesday, they whiffed 12 times against Braves starter Javier Vazquez -- and beat him, too.

We combed through baseball-reference.com's fabulous Play Index and couldn't find any other team since 1954 that won back-to-back games in which it fanned that many times against the opposing starting pitcher. In fact, we found just three other teams that did that within the same week:

1967 Red Sox (Catfish Hunter 12 K Sept. 12, Mickey Lolich 13 K Sept. 19)
1977 Blue Jays (Dennis Leonard 12 K Aug. 14, Nolan Ryan 13 K Aug. 19)
1990 Phillies (David Cone 12 K Sept. 7, Sid Fernandez 12 K Sept. 14)

Everyone knows about the team's propensity for strikeouts, and now we know how historically significant their tendency to strike out is. And in the four games since facing Santana and Vasquez, the Marlins have continued the pattern:

• 4/15 vs. Atlanta: 11 strikeouts, won 10-4
  
• 4/16 vs. Atlanta: 10 strikeouts, won 6-2
  
• 4/17 vs. Washington: 11 strikeouts in 10 innings (all in the first 9 innings), won 3-2
  
• 4/18 vs. Washington: 11 strikeouts in 11 innings (8 in the first 9 innings), won 9-6.

So in six consecutive games, the Marlins have won while striking out at least ten times. I believe Tim Kurkjian mentioned this streak on Baseball Tonight the other day, but I could not find any video of the segment on ESPN.com, unfortunately. The streak got a big boost from Emilio Bonifacio, who has gone 3 for 25 during the streak with an astonishing 11 strikeouts during the streak (that sound you hear is Ken Rosenthal saying he told us so).

This streak does deserve an asterisk, though, as it took the Fish 10 innings to get their tenth strikeout this afternoon. Nonetheless, the streak is something that may never be replicated.


UPDATE: The Marlins won again on Sunday, but only struck out three times, ending the streak.

Read more...

Ken Rosenthal Insists You Know the Real Bonifacio

First off, a hat tip to Tim Dierkes and company at MLB Rumors. It's a great place to find bullet points of what everyone is writing about and all speculative trade rumors as well. It is through this site that I have noticed that Ken Rosenthal is really insistent on telling us Emilio Bonifacio won't be good.

In his April 8th column for Fox Sports he tears down Lastings Milledge for a few things, most notably his misplays in centerfield against the Marlins and specifically the balls Bonifacio hit. At the end of that section he throws in a nugget about what one scout thinks of Emilio which ends with, "he's just a guy." Okay, thanks for the warning Ken. Only a few days into the season it was understandable that people might get carried away with his hot start and it's nice of you to notch us down a peg on the enthusiasm.

Today I clicked over to Rosenthal's April 14th column and he again tries to cool everyone's high about Bonifacio. I was interested to see what new scouting report or quotes he had, but there was none. It was the same exact quote. Read the columns for yourself. This time Ken prefaces it by saying, "Hate to be a spoilsport."

Look, I myself still have doubts about Bonifacio and whether he can stay consistent and do what he's doing, especially because it's tougher to hide hitting leadoff than it is if he were hitting seventh or eighth. But as it has been pointed out by Marlins broadcasters and other reporters, speed shows up every day. Last night's infield hit was a good example of how those types of plays will keep his batting avergae and on base percentage up. That was a routine play up the middle but because Escobar was playing a little in and he had a very slight double clutch on the throw, Bonifacio beat it easily. I'd be real surprised if his batting average dipped towards that .240% mark.

As for his fielding, they may be right but some of his errors are offset by web gems we have seen that not many third basemen would make, specifically fielding bunts. Plus, I think as Marlins fans we have become well acustomed to the fact that we will make many errors at third base. It doesn't faze us. By the way, I have a prediction that I won't disclose yet that would involve Bonifacio moving from third base to a new position with the primary reason not being poor defensive play. More on that at another time.

Once again, I don't mind Ken playing devil's advocate and trying to warn us, and if he and the scout end up being dead on, I'll give a big tip of the cap and a slow cap to them. But, for each warning there should be new information or more quotes from different scouts to make the points more vaild and believable.

Read more...