Marlins Promote Michael Hill, Dan Jennings

The Marlins announced Sunday that general manager Michael Hill will replace Larry Beinfest as president of baseball operations, with vice president of player development Dan Jennings moving up to Hill's old job. The move is a touch surprising: Jennings seemed to be the front-runner to replace Beinfest, while reports of the schism in the front office had Hill on the outside looking in with Beinfest. Instead, Hill will remain Jennings' boss.

Michael Hill, photo via NBCMiami.com

But even more baffling is this: Hill has been with the organization for 11 seasons, Jennings for 12. Beinfest came to the Marlins when Jeffrey Loria bought the team in 2002. If Loria was indeed unhappy with the direction of the team, why replace Beinfest with two guys who had been working for him for a decade?

Unless Beinfest was ruling the front office with an iron fist (and reports indicate that it was Loria who was doing that as of late, not Beinfest), it is unrealistic to think that Hill and Jennings will make the kind of changes necessary for the Marlins to be more competitive in the coming years. This seems like little more than a cosmetic change in the front office, where management will continually be hamstrung by their owner's notorious penny-pinching and micromanagement.

If there was one big damning fact hanging over Beinfest, it was his bad record in drafts through much of his tenure. While his staff hit big on early-round picks Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Johnson, none of Beinfest's first round picks from 2002-2009 made lasting contributions to the franchise. To be fair, recent years have seen the selections of Jose Fernandez and Christian Yelich, but there was a time when Chris Volstad and Chris Coghlan looked like they would be important players for years to come, nothing is certain.

Regardless, the question that keeps coming up with regards to the dismissal of Beinfest is "Why now?" His draft record was no secret, and he has missed far more often than not on big trades before last seasons' fire sale. In all likelihood, Beinfest forced this on himself by reportedly asking Loria to either fire him or let him resume running the team without interference, and Loria (for once) did the right thing and bought out the final two years of Beinfest's contract.

So Beinfest will earn the remainder of his salary for two years, and will probably be courted by a number of clubs this winter (should he choose not to take some time off). Hill and Jennings got promotions, but I can't escape the feeling that Beinfest himself is the biggest winner of this episode.

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Later Larry

Today Jeffrey Loria finally did what everyone had been expecting him to do: fire president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest.

Marlins Diehards has obtained exclusive video of Beinfest being fired by Loria:

We'll have more on this later.

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Stop me if you've heard this one before

Remember the time last year when speculation abounded that Marlins president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest was not long for his job? He is back on the hot seat, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports:

Beinfest is miserable, major league sources say. You would be miserable, too, if your owner over the past four years had gone from merely meddlesome to completely hands-on, even vetoing minor league call-ups for reasons unrelated to performance.

The Marlins’ power structure, according to sources, essentially consists of Loria and VP of player personnel Dan Jennings on one side and Beinfest and general manager Mike Hill on the other. Loria’s stepson, team president David Samson, has been all but invisible this season and also is on the outs with Loria, sources say.

The Miami Herald corroborated much of Rosenthal's report,:

Sources said Loria is now making most – if not all – of the baseball decisions, which is fueling speculation that president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest and team president David Samson could be ousted after the season.

“He has marginalized the front office,” said a major league source, who spoke only on the condition of anonymity. “The front office isn’t making decisions. Loria makes them all.”

Plenty of people have soured on Beinfest over the past few years, but even a subpar front-office-type is better than Loria at building a baseball team. Loria has long had the reputation of wanting one or more of "his guys" on the coaching staff (guys like Ozzie Guillen and Tino Martinez, both of whom have been the "Loria guy" at different points - and those worked out great, right??). It seems highly likely that if/when Beinfest is gone, another "Loria guy" will find himself in Beinfest's old position.

But if Loria hates one thing more than having his brilliant opinions ignored by his subordinates, it's paying money for someone to not be his team's president, and Beinfest is under contract until 2015. Perhaps Loria is trying to make life so uncomfortable for Beinfest that he quits, letting Loria off the hook for his next two years' worth of salary. If anyone is shrewd enough to pull off such a move, it is Jeffrey Loria, because:

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What Does Larry Beinfest Have in Common With Us?

"I don't even know who is here anymore," Beinfest said after the Marlins scored just one run during a three-game sweep this week by the Padres in San Diego. "It's been a bad run. It kind of started first day of spring training when [catcher Jeff] Mathis broke his collarbone and it hasn't really stopped since. It's been anything from hamstrings to whatever freak injuries – getting slid into. It’s been a little bit of everything."

BTB.

Via

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An Important Reminder Regarding Team Culture

Yesterday Larry Beinfest had this to say about Ozzie Guillen and the Marlins' search for his replacement:

Our managerial search begins immediately and our hope is that a new manager, along with roster improvements, will restore a winning culture.

There is an important rebuttal to make here and it is this: Winning builds a winning culture, a winning culture (whatever the hell that means) does not lead to winning.

We were initially highly annoyed that the Marlins seem content to have scapegoated Guillen (along with the now-departed Hanley Ramirez and Heath Bell) for their terrible 2012 season, but that emotion has subsided. Guillen is very clearly an insufferable dick whose personality is grating even when things are going well (as his tenure with the White Sox suggests). We won't begrudge any employer that dismisses an employee who creates a toxic work environment.

But to suggest that having the right manager can lead to a 69-93 team morphing into a playoff contender is beyond ludicrous. Having a more nurturing influence in the clubhouse would not have made Heath Bell pitch any better or Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes not be average hitters. There's a reason we keep suggesting the Marlins forego hiring a manager altogether - managers are almost entirely unnecessary.

And to suggest that chemistry and culture lead to winning (which is Beinfest's implicit assumption) flies in the face of reality. Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent absolutely loathed each other, yet the San Francisco Giants were one bullpen meltdown away from a World Series title in 2002. The Yankees teams of the 90s and aughts won plenty of games despite being a circus (though they pale in comparison to the Bronx Zoo Yankees of the 70s, who also won championships even though Reggie Jackson and Billy Martin made Bonds and Kent look like JD and Turk).

But we're just tilting at windmills here. The Marlins will improve next season (because how can they not?), and whoever the new manager is will get a good deal of credit thanks to the front office (and their enablers in the media) conflating correlation with causation. That doesn't make it correct, though.

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Marlins' Front Office Shortcomings Extend Beyond Beinfest

[Note: Inspired by Deadspin, Strip Club With Stanton has initiated a Marlins blogger roundtable. Our first topic is an assessment of Marlins president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest, who suddenly finds himself on the hot seat. SCWS' first entry can be read here, Michael Jong of Fish Stripes responds here.]

From: Dave
To: Ted, SCWS, Michael Jong

Gents,

Like you guys, I have been wondering whether the assumption that Larry Beinfest should be fired is a fair one. I think we don't need to rehash what you two have written thus far regarding his less-than-stellar draft record or his iffy-at-best trade and free agent history. While he has pulled off some remarkable steals (Dontrelle Willis et al for Antonio Alfonseca et al, Ricky Nolasco et al for Juan Pierre) and found some amazing value in the draft (it is still hard to believe that Giancarlo Stanton was a late second round pick), those hits are accompanied by very many misses.

But what interests me most at this time is who would replace Beinfest. Last week's report that Jeffrey Loria would promote VP of player personnel Dan Jennings is troubling. It is easy to blame Beinfest for the Marlins' recent string of bad personnel decisions, but he is far from the only culprit. After the first 2-3 rounds of the draft, senior front office officials are largely absent from the war room; it is the mid-level execs and scouts who search for value after the early rounds. And Beinfest certainly is not in charge of assembling scouting reports on free agents and trade targets.

The fact is, the Marlins seem to have issues throughout its personnel and scouting departments. Even when discounting for bad luck, Beinfest seems to be relying on the opinions of scouts who thought John Buck and Heath Bell were worth signing. Any new guy who replaces Beinfest will still have to rely on these scouts to make crucial decisions, since the nature of the business demands lots of delegation in the personnel department.

Making an internal hire only exacerbates the problem, as it signals to the rest of the front office that their inputs were not the problem, it was the guy at the top who mis-interpreted (or misused) them. An external hire cannot immediately address the organizational problems, but someone from outside the Marlins organization will be much more likely to initiate a shake-up of the staff and look to bring in better talent evaluators from other clubs.

Firing Beinfest and promoting Dan Jennings (or Michael Hill for that matter) is the kind of cosmetic fix that the Marlins were guilty of making this offseason when they signed "proven closer" Heath Bell. It will draw praise from sportswriters and ESPN personalities, but could seriously jeopardize the team in the long run.

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Beinfest Safe, Ozzie on the Hot Seat?

Nevermind those previous reports about the Marlins firing president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest. Both the Miami Herald and MLB.com report that the front office will remain intact this offseason. First, the Herald:

According to two sources, owner Jeffrey Loria does not intend to make any major changes to his front office staff, and Larry Beinfest’s job would appear to be safe for at least another year.

And MLB.com:

Loria made it clear to the front office that he was keeping the status quo. If a shift in power were going to occur, that meeting was the time and place to do it. It also was made clear that there would be no reassigning of duties or responsibilities.

But both reports also state that Ozzie Guillen's status as manager is uncertain at best. Loria does not appear to have made any decision, but that can hardly be reassuring to Guillen.

I would rather see a change in the front office than on the bench. The Marlins have been plagued by poor personnel decisions for the past few seasons, and no manager is capable of making up for that. But let's not get ahead of ourselves, the Marlins brass will surely find more ways to infuriate us before this episode is over.

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Larry Beinfest: On the Way Out?

From USA Today:

The Marlins, according to two high-ranking executives but not permitted to speak publicly because the final decision will be made by owner Jeffrey Loria, are planning to fire Larry Beinfest, vice president/baseball operations, perhaps as early as next week. He is expected to be replaced by Dan Jennings, the Marlins' assistant general manager and vice president of player personnel.

This is not too surprising. I don't expect Guillen to get canned (if he survived the Castro controversy, he can survive one bad season). The shine has worn off of Beinfest in recent years, as the Heath Bell/John Buck signings and the long-term fallout from the Miguel Cabrera trade have overshadowed his earlier, more successful moves. Normally I'd be worried that we have fallen victim to recency bias, but the trend has become more clear (and more disappointing) over the past few years.

L-R: Beinfest, Guillen, Loria, and Samson in happier times

The trend aside, Beinfest has been in charge of personnel since 2002, so a change at the top could prove useful if only to shake things up. I am more concerned about his replacement than his firing. I cannot purport to know much about Jennings, but he has been in the Marlins front office for awhile, and the problems facing the team seem more organizational than individual. Unless Jennings has been a dissenting voice within the club (and there is some evidence to that effect), I'm skeptical that he will make a huge change as president of baseball operations.

In short, I am worried that Beinfest will become a scapegoat (though I don't necessarily oppose his firing), and bigger problems within the scouting and personnel department will be papered over by the new boss (who is part of the old regime). I don't think it is a bad idea to be skeptical when it comes to the machinations of Jeffrey Loria (which is obvious to regular readers of this blog), and this seems like a classic Loria move, one that looks more substantive than it actually is.

Also, what will become of Michael Hill? I'm not sure if he is above, equal to, or below Jennings in the Marlins org chart (both are listed as VPs on the Marlins website), but if the CBS report linked above is true, and he is in Beinfest's faction, he may not be on the job much longer either. I suspect we'll find out soon enough.

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Adios, Hanley

There is not much more to say about the Marlins' decision to trade Hanley Ramirez for some prospects and a bucket of baseballs. The following facts are clear:

1. With the team out of contention and attendance not as robust as the team had initially hoped, the Marlins are content to cut salary and focus on 2013 and beyond. Trading Ramirez, Randy Choate, Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante will save the Marlins roughly $12 million in 2012 payroll (based on a rough back-of-envelope calculation).
2. The ONLY WAY the Ramirez deal can be considered a success is if the Marlins use the $31.5 million he was owed in 2013-2014 to lure a free agent hitter to Miami this winter. They gave Ramirez away so that Los Angeles would take on his entire salary. If they use this new financial flexibility to get a top-tier hitter, I'll be okay with the deal.
3. Let's not pretend that this is a reprise of the Miguel Cabrera trade. Hanley's OPS+ this year is 100 - which is literally the average (last season it was 95). $15 million is a lot to pay for an average hitter with suspect defense. I would have preferred the Marlins to have swapped Ramirez for a somewhat comparable player (the Marlins were reportedly offering Ramirez for Baltimore's Nick Markakis for instance), but why would another team offer much in return for Ramirez at this point? The true error of the deal is that the Marlins sold low on Ramirez, not that they sold at all.
4. Of the two prospects Miami got in return, I'm more excited about Nathan Eovaldi, who will join the rotation right away. But as we learned with Andrew Miller, there is no such thing as a sure-thing prospect. We'll have to keep our fingers crossed. Scott McGough has been assigned to class-A Jupiter, meaning it could be another year or two before he cracks the major league roster. 

Finally, I've resisted the temptation to criticize the Marlins' front office for the past year and a half, but it is beyond obvious that Larry Beinfest and Michael Hill have made some severe missteps as of late. The Marlins have whiffed on their first-round picks for the past decade (this is true even if recent draftees Christian Yelich and Jose Fernandez turn to gold) and have made some very questionable moves in free agency (see Bell, Heath and Oviedo, Juan, for just two examples). 

The Marlins are one of the few teams that treats advanced statistics with more skepticism than is necessary. This is forgivable when you have a good scouting department, but I don't think the Marlins have that (do you?). My own biases aside, I think it's time for the Marlins to bring in an MBA with the analytic chops to find the underpriced gems and sell the overpriced duds at the right time (it worked for the Red Sox, no?). You know how to find me, David Samson...

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Larry Beinfest's Next Job

Not baseball related at all:

There was a time when the Defense Department and its overseers in the congressional armed services committees did this sort of [cost/benefit] analysis routinely. But the knack, or the demand for it, dried up during "the post-9/11 decade," when the military grew "accustomed," as Gates put it in his AEI speech, to a "no-questions-asked" attitude on funding requests for anything and everything the services wanted. Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, made the same point in hearings this past January: "We've lost our ability to prioritize, make hard decisions, make trades." [emphasis added]

Confidential to President Obama: maybe you should think about making Marlins GM Larry Beinfest your next Secretary of Defense. Sure, it will be a bummer when he trades Seal Team Six to South Korea, but soon enough, your defense budget will be cut in half and the military will still manage to outperform expectations.

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Somehow This Doesn't Worry Me

Via Cameron:

We won't be reporting on every little rumor that hits my Twitter feed this fall and winter, but I had to laugh when I realized that the Marlins' most attractive "free agents" (though they're not actually free agents) are in the front office.

Also, the Mets front office could be staffed with Beinfest, Hill, and Jesus, and they still won't win a World Series.

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