It's Redmond Time

The Marlins have once again ignored my pleas to forego hiring a manager. The team has tabbed former Marlin Mike Redmond to steer the ship:

Redmond, 41, was signed to a 3-year contract that runs through the 2015 season, the team announced in a statement. The details of his salary were unknown.

We'll have more to say about this soon.

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An Important Reminder Regarding Team Culture

Yesterday Larry Beinfest had this to say about Ozzie Guillen and the Marlins' search for his replacement:

Our managerial search begins immediately and our hope is that a new manager, along with roster improvements, will restore a winning culture.

There is an important rebuttal to make here and it is this: Winning builds a winning culture, a winning culture (whatever the hell that means) does not lead to winning.

We were initially highly annoyed that the Marlins seem content to have scapegoated Guillen (along with the now-departed Hanley Ramirez and Heath Bell) for their terrible 2012 season, but that emotion has subsided. Guillen is very clearly an insufferable dick whose personality is grating even when things are going well (as his tenure with the White Sox suggests). We won't begrudge any employer that dismisses an employee who creates a toxic work environment.

But to suggest that having the right manager can lead to a 69-93 team morphing into a playoff contender is beyond ludicrous. Having a more nurturing influence in the clubhouse would not have made Heath Bell pitch any better or Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes not be average hitters. There's a reason we keep suggesting the Marlins forego hiring a manager altogether - managers are almost entirely unnecessary.

And to suggest that chemistry and culture lead to winning (which is Beinfest's implicit assumption) flies in the face of reality. Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent absolutely loathed each other, yet the San Francisco Giants were one bullpen meltdown away from a World Series title in 2002. The Yankees teams of the 90s and aughts won plenty of games despite being a circus (though they pale in comparison to the Bronx Zoo Yankees of the 70s, who also won championships even though Reggie Jackson and Billy Martin made Bonds and Kent look like JD and Turk).

But we're just tilting at windmills here. The Marlins will improve next season (because how can they not?), and whoever the new manager is will get a good deal of credit thanks to the front office (and their enablers in the media) conflating correlation with causation. That doesn't make it correct, though.

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Ozzie Gets the Ax

Ozzie Guillen, COCKPUNCHED:

The Ozzie Guillen era in Miami lasted just one season. The Miami Marlins fired Guillen Tuesday. Picked by many to contend for a playoff spot before the 2012 season, the Marlins finished 69-93, in the cellar of the NL East.

Marlins President of Baseball Operations Larry Beinfest made the announcement. The Marlins still owe Guillen $7.5 million for the three years remaining on his contract. The team traded two minor leaguers to the Chicago White Sox last fall in exchange for Guillen, who had managed the White Sox for the previous 8 seasons.

At least the dog still likes him. When we discussed whether the Heath Bell trade meant Guillen was safe this weekend, we said, "I think the case could be made that the team is willing to cut bait on any contract, including Guillen's." One point for Dave.

We didn't think Guillen deserved to be fired because Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes morphed into average hitters and Heath Bell became Jorge Julio 2.0. Like any respectable stat nerd, we assert that a good manager will add at most 2-3 wins over the course of a season. And it is hard to argue that Guillen could have done anything to improve the team's disappointing hitting (there is an argument to be made that his handling of the bullpen was suboptimal, since he stuck with Bell as closer for way too long).

The worst part of this move, though, is the fact that the team will likely improve dramatically next year, and that will allow Team Loria to give excess credit to the new manager (whoever that will be).

Speaking of new managers, it would not be shocking if Loria goes after Bobby Valentine, who was just fired by the Red Sox. He has long been on the Marlins' radar. I have no idea whether he would represent an improvement over Guillen, but I suspect it's a wash.

Finally, we must once again link to our 2010 piece that argues against hiring a manager at all.

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Heath Bell is Gone, Let Us Rejoice

BREAKING: @athletics get @cy24_7 in trades that send Heath Bell & Cliff Pennington to @dbacks. @marlins add INF prospect Yordy Cabrera.
— MLB (@MLB) October 20, 2012

That was quick. The Marlins did not even wait for the postseason to conclude to rid themselves of overpriced "proven closer," ice cream enthusiast, and legit clubhouse cancer Heath Bell, sending him to Arizona in the above three-team deal.

Our reaction:

In the annals of bad Marlins closers, Bell has to be at or near the top. In terms of disastrous play, I think Jorge Julio still has him beat, but Bell stuck around for a full season, and that has to count for something. Throw in the tidbit from the end of the season when the team locked out the media and listened to Ozzie Guillen trash Bell on the radio (after Bell did the same to Guillen in the media), and Bell is definitely the biggest clubhouse cancer in team history. He did more to divide the players than anything Hanley Ramirez ever did, but thanks to white privilege did not get called out for it nearly enough.

The Marlins likely had to pay a ton of money to dump Bell (who is due $21 million over the next two seasons). But that's a sunk cost, and Marlins fans should be happy the team recognizes that the money is better spent ensuring that Bell doesn't pitch for the Marlins.

[UPDATE: According to JCR, Marlins sent $8 million to Arizona, which we think is a BARGAIN. We were expecting a number in the $15 million range.]

As for what this means for Bell's nemesis Guiilen, Tom Green thinks it is a signal that the team will keep Ozzie. That is plausible, but I think the case could be made that the team is willing to cut bait on any contract, including Guillens (three years, $7.5 million remaining). So I'm going to keep Guillen in the "status unknown" category for now.

Larry Beinfest had this to say about the trade:

This should be a positive change. After a disappointing 2012 this gives us clarity as we begin our offseason roster improvement.

We agree.

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The Cycle Begins Anew

That Jeff Loria sure does love firing managers, so this report doesn't surprise us at all:

Marlins are aggressively seeking a replacement for Ozzie Guillen. Will they wait to find someone before firing him? We'll see.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) October 4, 2012

Maybe after he fires Ozzie, Loria can address the grounds crew, since they bear just as much responsibility for this season's failures as Guillen (that is, close to none).

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Beef Hell

This story just keeps getting better and better. Ozzie Guillen had his chance to respond to Heath Bell's most recent criticisms on Tuesday:

"It was my turn this week," Guillen said of Bell's latest criticism. "Last week it was somebody else, the pitching coach. The week before it was the catchers, and the week before that it was the scouting report. When all these things pile up, then you don't have respect for someone. When you read every week, it's another [excuse], another, another ... all kind of stuff. You have to have principles. You have to look yourself in the mirror and blame yourself."

Sick burn, Oz. Making this all the better: the Marlins held a closed-door meeting to huddle around a radio and listen to Guillen's radio interview on Tuesday, so Bell had to listen to all of this with his teammates (probably) glaring at him. Bell said Tuesday that he's probably lost his teammates' respect (you think?).

But wait, it gets better.

First, Bell left Ozzie a voicemail apology on Monday night, only Ozzie never heard it because he didn't recognize Bell's number on his caller ID and deleted the message without listening to it. "I thought it was one of the media asking me about what happened," Guillen later said.

Then, Bell did whatever anyone does when they get caught saying something stupid: he blamed the media for being around to write down his dumb words:

All I have to say is what was taken yesterday on ESPN was out of proportion. I was not criticizing Ozzie one bit. I’m not retracting anything I said but that report on ESPN News, I’d say 80 percent of it was false.

Who said the Marlins wouldn't provide captivating drama when they fell out of the pennant race? Not me!

We (I) have a word for athletes who complain to the media about their bosses then chastise the media for directly quoting them: assholes.

Heath Bell is an asshole. Ozzie Guillen is no angel, but at least when he said something abominably stupid (even more idiotic than Bell's comments, but no need to beat a dead horse), he owned up to it and apologize. Bell went the petulant child route (I wonder where he learned that), and it is a color that doesn't suit him.

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Heath Bell: Blame-shifter

Stop me if you've heard this before...

"It's hard to respect a guy that doesn't tell you the truth or doesn't tell you face-to-face," Bell said. "There's probably reasons why."

To be fair, Heath also said, "I stunk in April, plain and simple," but quickly moved on to a complaint about the fact that he's not closing now, despite having "a tremendous second half."

It's pretty clear that Bell senses he has become a scapegoat for the Marlins' poor performance this year (and he certainly played a big role), so he is trying to shift attention onto the manager who is on the hot seat. This is not a good look for you, Heath.

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Beinfest Safe, Ozzie on the Hot Seat?

Nevermind those previous reports about the Marlins firing president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest. Both the Miami Herald and MLB.com report that the front office will remain intact this offseason. First, the Herald:

According to two sources, owner Jeffrey Loria does not intend to make any major changes to his front office staff, and Larry Beinfest’s job would appear to be safe for at least another year.

And MLB.com:

Loria made it clear to the front office that he was keeping the status quo. If a shift in power were going to occur, that meeting was the time and place to do it. It also was made clear that there would be no reassigning of duties or responsibilities.

But both reports also state that Ozzie Guillen's status as manager is uncertain at best. Loria does not appear to have made any decision, but that can hardly be reassuring to Guillen.

I would rather see a change in the front office than on the bench. The Marlins have been plagued by poor personnel decisions for the past few seasons, and no manager is capable of making up for that. But let's not get ahead of ourselves, the Marlins brass will surely find more ways to infuriate us before this episode is over.

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Mike Lowell, Really?

More news on the management front today. First, Jeffrey Loria sort of denies the USA Today report saying the team will fire Larry Beinfest and replace him with Dan Jennings. "I never comment on any ridiculous and fabricated rumors," he told the Miami Herald. Loria did not say any else, though, making me wonder whether this is actually a denial. I think a change at the top of the baseball side is coming (based purely on a hunch and Loria's proclivity for firing people), so we probably have not heard the last of this story.

More interesting is a report from MLB.com's Joe Frisaro, who wrote last night, "The Marlins, in considering a potential managerial change, have talked about ex-Marlin Mike Lowell as an option." Obviously, no decision has been made on retaining or firing Ozzie Guillen, but the fact that Mike Lowell has been brought up is setting off my bullshit alarms like crazy.

Unlike yours truly, Jeffrey Loria thinks a manager can significantly increase a team's win total. But if he believes that, why bring in a guy with no managerial experience whatsoever? I love Mike Lowell (who doesn't?), but he does not strike me as the kind of managerial candidate Loria prefers. Most likely, this "discussion" will stay just that, but if the team hires Lowell, it will mean one of two things:

1. The team is making an effort to better market the team by making a former Marlin and hometown guy the figurehead.
2. Jeffrey Loria is out of ideas

For the record, I think Loria will balk at firing Guillen because he will have to pay him the remaining $9 million or so owed to him regardless, and Loria will probably (hopefully) prefer to spend the extra money required to get a new manager on guys who actually hit and throw baseballs. But he's made crazier moves than this (like trading two minor leaguers for Guillen!), so I guess anything is possible at the moment.

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Listen to Ozzie, Don't Move the Marlins Park Fences

Should the Marlins move in the fences at Marlins Park? Ozzie Guillen says no:

"We are not going to move the fence. That's it," he said. "If you want to be the hitting coach here and the fence is too far, go home. If you don't want to play here because the fence is too far, go home.

"I guarantee you – if you give them $100 million, they will play here. If you don't have a job, they will play here. That’s a bunch of [bleep]. We don't have home run hitters and the one [Mike Stanton] we have has 34. I don't see any [other] guy hitting 40 home runs – maybe Carlos Lee 30 years ago.

"We're not in last place because this ballpark's big. We’re in last place because we're bad – from the top to bottom, myself included." OK then. By the way, the Marlins have hit 30 more homers on the road than at home.

We agree with Ozzie, though not quite for the same reason. He is right to point out that Stanton is the only true power hitter on this team (though to be fair, only 13 of his 34 home runs have come at Marlins Park), so it's not like the stadium is preventing Jose Reyes from hitting 30 homeres.

But it is very difficult to argue that Marlins Park has not suppressed home run numbers. Instead of looking at the home run totals, as the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson did above, let's look at some other stats that use rates instead of counting.

At home, 7.1% of Marlins fly balls are leaving the park (all stats via FanGraphs). Only the San Francisco Giants have a lower HR/FB% at home (3.8%). Other teams at the bottom of the HR/FB% standings include all the usual big-ballpark suspects: Seattle, San Diego, the Mets, and (for some reason) the Dodgers. For comparison,  On the road, the Marlins HR/FB% jumps to 12.3%, better than all but 7 teams.

Is one season enough of a sample size to tell? @BoobiesNStanton and I argued about this over Twitter a few weeks ago; I say yes. The Marlins have hit 706 fly balls at home, and 642 fly balls on the road. That is a significant sample, but not enough for statistical significance (for a representative sample of a population that is within a 5% margin of error, you need roughly 1,050 data points).

So here I concede to Boobies and say that our sample size is not large enough - unless you count the plate appearances of visiting teams at Marlins Park and the Marlins' road opponents in the appropriate buckets. That would most likely put us over the 1,050 FB threshold, but I am tabling that project until the offseason.

Regardless of the whether Marlins Park suppresses home run numbers, I still say the team should leave the fences where they are. If the Marlins are hitting fewer home runs at home, so too are their opponents most likely. I would rather see the front office build a team that is best suited to Marlins Park rather than rejigger Marlins Park every few years to suit the needs of the team.

Additionally, though I will not attempt to statistically test this theory at the moment, I suspect the expansive outfield at Marlins Park provides other benefits, namely, a preponderance of triples and doubles. The Marlins have hit 21 triples and 121 doubles in 2709 home plate appearances at home, versus 16 triples and 125 doubles in 2878 plate appearances on the road. This benefit probably does not outweigh the reduction in home runs, but should be taken into consideration. I will take a deeper look at this during the offseason as well.

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Don't Cross Ozzie

On Friday, ESPN's Buster Olney posted a story titled "Ozzie Guillen's Uncertain Future," and (shockingly), Guillen wasn't cool about a suggestion that the Marlins have quit on Guillen:

buster olney u so full a shit whit u stupidcomments about the miami team we still play hard we yes no wingames i think u no watch.
— Ozzie Guillen (@OzzieGuillen) September 15, 2012

i think u no watch our games if u say iam bad manager is ok but u ever say my team give up
— Ozzie Guillen (@OzzieGuillen) September 15, 2012

In his own defense, Olney said he "referenced the opinion of rival evaluators on the Marlins' recent play," and not his own.

I'm sure this is exactly the type of exciting September action the front office envisioned when it assembled the team over the winter...

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Same Old Marlins Fans

We're (not) back!

Can't wait for a SCWS Marlins Park camo shirt to drop...

Also back: Ozzie Guillen's tweets(!):

golf. game. yes be. cancel. thank. god. i. was playing. bad. lol. two much. water. terrible. now. drive. back. to. miami
— Ozzie Guillen (@OzzieGuillen) September 5, 2012

So. happy. to. see. you. back. Oz.

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Ozzie Ain't Care

Men's Journal polled MLBers about a number of subjects for this month's issue, and apparently nobody likes Ozzie Guillen:

In the issue that hits newsstands on Friday, Men's Journal surveyed 100 major leaguers, and Guillen received 36 percent of the vote when asked to name the least respected manager. Boston Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine came in a distant second with 14 percent.

At least the dog likes Ozzie...

Unfortunately, Men's Journal has not put this story on their website at all (which is a fantastic way to make sure no one clicks on the ads on your site, btw).

Ozzie, predictably, doesn't give one fuck at all. 

"I don’t care a [expletive] what people think about me," he concluded. "I have a job. My job is to win games, and I’m going to do it my way. And if they don’t like the way I do my job, it’s easy. Fire my [butt]."

Never change, Ozzie. To be fair, he gives himself a "C+ or a D" for his work this season, sensible given that the Marlins are just a game over .500 at the moment. "I should be in first place with this ball club," he said. "I’ve got good players. I might not [be getting] the best out of them. Not yet."

Anyway, I want to care more about this story, but all it does is confirm what we already knew: Ozzie Guillen rubs people the wrong way. Shocker.

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Say it ain't so...

Ozzie Guillen has quit Twitter:

Our reaction:

Why did he do it? Mostly because of haterz:

"People out there are nasty, nasty," he said Thursday. "I don't need the aggravation."

Also, he doesn't get paid for it:

"I never made money on that... I'm not Kim Kardashian. I don't sell anything in my life to have Twitter."

So that's a bummer. Guillen said he'd keep blogging, since he gets paid for it. Guillen seems to have done a better job figuring out Web 2.0 than we have. But no one ever picketed our workplace demanding we be fired for something we said about a decrepit despot, so we've got that going for us, which is nice.

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Punto a los Testículos

In case you missed it last night, Hanley Ramirez got plunked by Astros reliever Wilton Lopez on Wednesday night in the top of the seventh inning. Hanley gave Lopez the stare-down afterward, and had to be escorted to first by home plate umpire to keep the peace. Astros manager Brad Mills said the HBP was purely unintentional, but Lopez belied that assessment by flashing the Marlins' "lo viste" sign on his way to the dugout after being pulled.

Apparently, the Astros were displeased with Ramirez after he admired his own home run hit against them last month in Miami, and the HBP may have been retaliatory. If they really wanted to get revenge on the Marlins, they could try winning more games. The Fish have gone 4-2 against Houston this season.

This once again proves that baseball beefs are the lamest beefs of all.

Ozzie Guillen, as expected, wins the conflict thanks to his solid logic and reasoning:

"Very immature, that's all I can say. Very immature," Guillen said. "He's lucky I wasn't Hanley. I would have chased his ass all the way to Puerto Rico."

Lopez is from Nicaragua, not Puerto Rico. Never change, Ozzie.


Photo via Larry Brown Sports

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Watch Samson Suspend Ozzie

Via Fish@Bat:

This doesn't feel especially staged, but there is no way Samson and Guillen aren't performing a little bit here. Guillen says pretty much the same thing he said in his apologetic press conference. I was hoping for more fireworks, but alas.

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Bill Maher on Ozzie Guillen

If you had to share a beer with any two people in the world, Maher and Guillen would make a great duo.

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Marlins Suspend Guillen 5 Games

No surprise here, Guillen will get a time-out for his Castro remarks. Not much to say about this one, except this: A five-game suspension is basically the Marlins' attempt to split the difference between people who wanted Guillen fired and people who think this is much ado about very little. In the end, neither party will be satisfied, but it will blow over in a week or so.

What hurts Guillen, though, is the fact that whenever he gets in trouble again it will be lumped together with this incident to give his detractors further ammunition. It's his own fault, but those Castro comments will be held against him permanently.

We will now revert back to being a baseball blog.

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All Together Now

An event does not become a scandal until politicians are using the event to score cheap points with their constituents. We can now call Ozzie Guillen's Castro flap a bona fide scandal:

The Chairman of the Miami-Dade Board of Commissioners has called on Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria to urge Guillen to resign.

In an open letter sent to the media on Monday, Joe A. Martinez said "there is no alternative that would be satisfactory" after Guillen's "I love Fidel Castro" quote in an upcoming edition of Time Magazine.

"To say you respect Fidel Castro, suggests he also respects dictators such as Hugo Chavez, Daniel Ortega, Adolf Hitler and Sadam Hussein," the letter reads.

It's got everything included in a paint-by-numbers umbrage kit: a proposed punishment that doesn't fit the crime, Hitler reference, and public shaming. But what is more shameful: Guillen's words about Castro, or using those words to make yourself look like the arbiter of common sense and protector of the people?

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Tilting at Windmills in Little Havana

Discussion of Fidel Castro and US-Cuba policy is where reasoned logic goes to die, but someone needs to point out the petty hypocrisy of a local anti-Castro group calling for the job of Ozzie Guillen. Last week, Guillen said the following about Cuban dictator Fidel Castro:

"I respect Fidel Castro," Guillen was quoted as saying. "You know why? A lot of people have wanted to kill Fidel Castro for the last 60 years, but that mother****** is still here."

I think we can all agree that this is a dumb and shortsighted thing to say in public, even if you do not manage a baseball team that plays its home games in Little Havana. But really, can anyone say with a straight face that Guillen's comment makes a lick of difference in the grand scheme of things?

The answer is yes, if you are Vigilia Mambisa, a group that plans to protest at Marlins Park and boycott the team until Guillen steps down. Never mind that the team and Guillen have both apologized for the statement (Guillen said Sunday "I'm against everything 100 percent... the way this man (been) treating people for the last 60 years"). He must be punished for saying something (a dumb joke, really) that goes against the official position on Castro held by civilized folk like you and me and Vigilia Mambisa.

But judging by their Facebook page (67 likes), and the fact that they don't even have a website, I'm guessing Vigilia Mambisa thought the Guillen controversy would be a dynamite event to exploit for their own publicity.  

But unfortunately for Vigilia Mambisa, freedom of speech applies to speech about Castro, as well. There is a place where people who speak freely and don't hide their opinions are punished, sometimes very harshly. It's called Cuba.

Irony is dead. Long live irony.

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