Heath Bell is Gone, Let Us Rejoice

BREAKING: @athletics get @cy24_7 in trades that send Heath Bell & Cliff Pennington to @dbacks. @marlins add INF prospect Yordy Cabrera.
— MLB (@MLB) October 20, 2012

That was quick. The Marlins did not even wait for the postseason to conclude to rid themselves of overpriced "proven closer," ice cream enthusiast, and legit clubhouse cancer Heath Bell, sending him to Arizona in the above three-team deal.

Our reaction:

In the annals of bad Marlins closers, Bell has to be at or near the top. In terms of disastrous play, I think Jorge Julio still has him beat, but Bell stuck around for a full season, and that has to count for something. Throw in the tidbit from the end of the season when the team locked out the media and listened to Ozzie Guillen trash Bell on the radio (after Bell did the same to Guillen in the media), and Bell is definitely the biggest clubhouse cancer in team history. He did more to divide the players than anything Hanley Ramirez ever did, but thanks to white privilege did not get called out for it nearly enough.

The Marlins likely had to pay a ton of money to dump Bell (who is due $21 million over the next two seasons). But that's a sunk cost, and Marlins fans should be happy the team recognizes that the money is better spent ensuring that Bell doesn't pitch for the Marlins.

[UPDATE: According to JCR, Marlins sent $8 million to Arizona, which we think is a BARGAIN. We were expecting a number in the $15 million range.]

As for what this means for Bell's nemesis Guiilen, Tom Green thinks it is a signal that the team will keep Ozzie. That is plausible, but I think the case could be made that the team is willing to cut bait on any contract, including Guillens (three years, $7.5 million remaining). So I'm going to keep Guillen in the "status unknown" category for now.

Larry Beinfest had this to say about the trade:

This should be a positive change. After a disappointing 2012 this gives us clarity as we begin our offseason roster improvement.

We agree.

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Beef Hell

This story just keeps getting better and better. Ozzie Guillen had his chance to respond to Heath Bell's most recent criticisms on Tuesday:

"It was my turn this week," Guillen said of Bell's latest criticism. "Last week it was somebody else, the pitching coach. The week before it was the catchers, and the week before that it was the scouting report. When all these things pile up, then you don't have respect for someone. When you read every week, it's another [excuse], another, another ... all kind of stuff. You have to have principles. You have to look yourself in the mirror and blame yourself."

Sick burn, Oz. Making this all the better: the Marlins held a closed-door meeting to huddle around a radio and listen to Guillen's radio interview on Tuesday, so Bell had to listen to all of this with his teammates (probably) glaring at him. Bell said Tuesday that he's probably lost his teammates' respect (you think?).

But wait, it gets better.

First, Bell left Ozzie a voicemail apology on Monday night, only Ozzie never heard it because he didn't recognize Bell's number on his caller ID and deleted the message without listening to it. "I thought it was one of the media asking me about what happened," Guillen later said.

Then, Bell did whatever anyone does when they get caught saying something stupid: he blamed the media for being around to write down his dumb words:

All I have to say is what was taken yesterday on ESPN was out of proportion. I was not criticizing Ozzie one bit. I’m not retracting anything I said but that report on ESPN News, I’d say 80 percent of it was false.

Who said the Marlins wouldn't provide captivating drama when they fell out of the pennant race? Not me!

We (I) have a word for athletes who complain to the media about their bosses then chastise the media for directly quoting them: assholes.

Heath Bell is an asshole. Ozzie Guillen is no angel, but at least when he said something abominably stupid (even more idiotic than Bell's comments, but no need to beat a dead horse), he owned up to it and apologize. Bell went the petulant child route (I wonder where he learned that), and it is a color that doesn't suit him.

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Heath Bell: Blame-shifter

Stop me if you've heard this before...

"It's hard to respect a guy that doesn't tell you the truth or doesn't tell you face-to-face," Bell said. "There's probably reasons why."

To be fair, Heath also said, "I stunk in April, plain and simple," but quickly moved on to a complaint about the fact that he's not closing now, despite having "a tremendous second half."

It's pretty clear that Bell senses he has become a scapegoat for the Marlins' poor performance this year (and he certainly played a big role), so he is trying to shift attention onto the manager who is on the hot seat. This is not a good look for you, Heath.

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Clearance Sale on Ice Cream-Loving Closers

Via the Miami Herald:

The Marlins will renew efforts this winter to trade Heath Bell, aware they probably will need to eat some of the $18 million he is still owed through 2014. They’re fed up with his performance and what they perceive as excuse-making.

If the Marlins pay less than $17 million of that remaining salary, I'd be shocked. I imagine teams will want Bell for less than the MLB minimum next season.

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Spare us, Heath

For a fat dude, you'd think Heath Bell would be a little more jolly...

Bell felt the editing process made it look as if too much of blame on the disappointing season fell on him.

"It wasn't a good experience for me," Bell said. "It was a good experience knowing how television can ruin your life. It was fun. I like some of the guys, the camera guys. They're not bad guys. It's just the guys who were cutting and pasting, they can make it look like one person is the reason we didn't do well, or they can make it look like the team did bad.

"They definitely portrayed me as the only one having a bad year, because you heard it on just about every episode, but not everybody else."

I haven't watched The Franchise (because as Darren Rovell pointed out once, I'm a bad fan, obvi). But television "ruined" you life, Heath?

#FirstWorldProblems

This season can't end soon enough...

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Heath Bell will soon resume destroying your sanity

Via Joe Frisaro:

Manager Ozzie Guillen is leaning towards going with Bell the next time there is a save situation. Guillen still holds the right to change his mind, based on circumstances, but look for Bell to be given a chance to lock down the final outs.

Were the Marlins not 10 games below .500 in August, I'd be more than a bit concerned about this decision. But with the Marlins far from contention, I'm not even going to get mad. I'm going to take a page from the Fins Nation playbook and just enjoy what remains of this trainwreck of a season for what it is: a human catastrophe that I can't help but watch with awe. I'll also be drinking heavily whenever I watch the Marlins, but that goes without saying.

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There's no '$' in Bullpen

Over at Fish Stripes, Michael Jong plots the Marlins' bullpen performance versus payroll for the past five years: 

It is not a pretty picture. The team has spent a ton of money (mostly on Heath Bell and soon Juan Carlos Oviedo, once his suspension ends). And the bullpen has been much worse in 2012, though the fielding-independent stats suggest the bullpen is not entirely at fault. Jong argues that the steady FIP- stats (which is weighted against the rest of the league; in other words, the Marlins bullpen has been 6 to 10% better than the average MLB pitcher in each of the last five years).

Be warned.

Clearly, the Marlins have overpaid for relievers this year. Besides giving Heath Bell top dollar, the Marlins traded Cameron Maybin two years ago for Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb (Maybin's WAR in 2011-2012: 4.9; Webb and Mujica's combined: 1.4!). 

All those dollars could have been used to address actual areas of need. The Marlins have been forced to play a converted outfielder (Emilio Bonifacio) and a Quad-A guy (Justin Ruggiano, whose .457 BABIP suggests is bound for a big crash) in centerfield. They could have kept Maybin, or used Bell's money on a free agent like Yoenis Cespedes, and probably get the same results out of the bullpen this year. Paying top dollar for a "proven closer" will get good press in December, but it often comes with opportunity costs that end up hurting the team in the long run.

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Confidential to Heath Bell

Hi Heath, it's Dave. You don't know me, but I want to help. Marlins fans would love to adore you, but if you insist on complaining about us (while at the same time walking 14% of the batters you face and racking up a 4.07 FIP), you will become a bigger pariah and laughingstock than Tony Sparano.

We could forgive you for decrying Giancarlo Stanton's paltry All-Star voting tally:

Bell said the Marlins' lack of national media coverage is no excuse for Stanton's paltry vote total. "I think the team is doing their part. I think it's the responsibility of the fan to vote for your favorite position player," he said. "If ESPN doesn't promote the Marlins and MLB doesn't promote the Marlins, I think the fans should."

But complaining about fans in your own park being more interested in the Heat's run to the NBA Finals while the Marlins are busy losing 7 out of their last 8 games is laughable.

"You can tell when there's a Heat game, there's nobody by our window," closer Heath Bell said of the window in the Marlins' outfield bullpen. "I know I got annoyed the last couple of times because it was 'Let's go He-eat!' I was like, 'Let's go Marlins!' I was yelling back at them."

To be fair, it is weird to think that someone would go to the Marlins Park Clevelander so they can watch a Heat game, but last time I checked, this is America, so that's perfectly legal.

You're new here, and maybe none of your teammates have mentioned this, but fans in South Florida only care about teams that are winning. If you really want to steal attention from the Heat, do something to help your teammates start hitting with runners in scoring position. The rest will take care of itself.

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The Monsterest of #Monsterdongs

After Heath Bell pooped the bed (again!) in the ninth inning on Sunday, giving up 2 runs as the Marlins fell behind 4-2 against the Mets, his teammates bailed him out in a big way. First, Emilio Bonifacio tripled and scored on a Greg Dobbs single, then Jose Reyes tied the game on a sac fly. A walk to Hanley Ramirez and HBP to Austin Kearns loaded the bases for Stanton, who sent a bomb to the base of the centerfield home run sculpture.

Peep this win probability chart: 

Source: FanGraphs

We'll be back later with the Week in Review.

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The Apotheosis of Big Z

Carlos Zambrano finally picked up his first win as a Miami Marlin, after figuring out that Heath Bell could not give up a lead if he never got a chance to pitch. Even though Big Z knew that Bell is no longer the Marlins closer, he managed to fit in a subtle message upon finishing up a 4-0 victory against the Astros.


Zambrano's line:

9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K, 0.452 WPA

For the season, he's given up just 9 runs in 41 innings, though he is being helped by a .234 BABIP (career average is .276). Still, his BB/9 is down to 3.07 (compared to 4.05 for his career) and by all accounts he has been a model citizen thus far in his Marlins tenure. By the law of averages, that means he is bound to issue 12 walks and attack Billy the Marlin in his next start.

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Week in Review

Overview:  An almost perfect week. After falling to Arizona on Monday, the Marlins swept the Giants and Padres in three games apiece.
Positives: Omar Infante's hot streak continues, he is now slashing .325/.352/.651, and I have no idea how. Giancarlo Stanton's power outage is officially over, as he hit four tater tots in the last six games. The Marlins are now tied with Washington for the most quality starts in MLB (21).
Negatives: It wasn't all perfect. Heath Bell blew two more saves, finally convincing Ozzie Guillen to demote him (albeit temporarily). Josh Johnson continues to struggle, giving up 6 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in his start on Friday. For the season he is sporting an ERA of 6.61. Other than that, though, it's been a good week.
Line of the Week: With the bullpen reeling and in need of rest, Mark Buehrle stepped up with a complete game on Saturday, earning the win in San Diego:

9 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 116 pitches, 0.331 WPA

Highlight of the Week: As mentioned above, Giancarlo Stanton hit four home runs this week, including the moon shot in San Diego below. He also made a nice play with his glove on Sunday.

Looking Ahead: The Fish finish their road trip with a three-game set in Houston starting Monday. After a day off on Thursday, the Marlins return home for a three games against the Mets.

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Heath Bell Demoted

Heath Bell won't be ruining our evenings in the near future:

Heath Bell was relieved of his closer duties Saturday.

One day after Bell cracked in the ninth for the fifth time, manager Ozzie Guillen stripped him of the closers role, at least for the time being.

That means Steve Cishek will close for now, an answer to the prayers of most Marlins fans (though he will not be available on Sunday). However, this will likely be a temporary fix if Bell can work out his issues. Ozzie Guillen said Saturday, "It's not like I'm removing him from his job. We're going to come up with something positive to resolve the problem."

The Herald's Barry Jackson sums up Heath's issues on the mound:

Heath Bell's velocity is down a mile from last year (to 92.9 mph), but the bigger issue, according to a Marlins official, is he's not throwing his curveball for strikes. Plus, metrics show batters are swinging at a lot less of his non-strikes than last year.

Meanwhile, Mark Buehrle scoffs at the notion that another pitcher needs to finish his games, throwing a complete game on Saturday night for the win.

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Issued Without Comment

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WTF HEATH?!?

Heath Bell is at it again. On Wednesday, he was called in to pitch the ninth against San Francisco with a 2-0 lead. His outing went thusly:

1. Brandon Belt doubled to CF
2. Joaquin Arias singled to RF, Belt scores
3. Buster Posey singled to RF, Arias to third

No worries! It's not like the Marlins are paying him $27 million over three seasons or anything...

Ozzie Guillen mercifully pulled Bell for Steve Cishek. After striking out Brett Pill, Cishek allowed the tying run to score on a brilliantly executed squeeze bunt by Gregor Blanco. Under the byzantine rules of the save, this means Cishek blew the save, but Bell did all the damage here. Bell's WPA during the inning was -0.556, while Cishek's was 0.111.

Bell had this to say about his troubles after the game:

I just feel really bad because Zambrano pitched a heckuva game. It still hurts, but it's one of those things that, for whatever reason, I'm not having any luck this year. The tide will change for me, hopefully sooner rather than later.

Heath is half-right. So far this year, his BABIP has been .387, a full 84 points above his career average. BABIP is out of his control, and we all know the Marlins defense has been less than stellar this season.

But what Bell can control are his strikeout and walk rates, which have been abysmal. His 2012 BB% is 17.4%, compared to 8.4% for his career. And his K% is a paltry 10.9%, down from a career mark of 24.7%. He is having a hard time fooling hitters, as shown by a decrease in O-Swing% (percentage of swings at pitches outside the strike-zone) to 22.0% from 31.7% last year. Opposing hitters' contact rate has jumped to 88.5% from 81.2%.

What does this all mean? Meet your new Marlins closer: Steve Cishek. Guillen has not publicly said what he plans to do about the closer situation, but the writing is on the wall.

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MDH Exclusive: Photo of Heath Bell's postgame celebration

Here's Heath enjoying the clubhouse spread after notching his first legit save* of 2012:

Who's a good boy?

Enjoy it Heath, you earned it!

*Technically it's his third save, but those first two came with 2- and 3-run leads entering the bottom of the ninth, so I'm not counting them. If you have a problem with that, go start a blog of your own.

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Someday Our Former Closer Will Come

Juan Carlos Oviedo/Leo Nunez is still in the Dominican Republic, but his return to the Marlins' bullpen will be delayed even more, as MLB has extended his ID-theft suspension to eight weeks from six weeks. Now he can return to the Marlins no earlier than late June. Which is too bad, since our new closer is only good at one thing (and it is not getting outs):

Only Heath Bell can make us pine for the glory days of the Leocoaster.

#FreeLeoOrJuanCarlosOrWhoever

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Misadventures of the Tangerine Troops: Vol. IV

Heath Bell enters with a 2-1 lead in the ninth inning.

• Walks David Wright
• Retires Lucas Duda on groundout. right to second base
• Walks Ike Davis on four pitches
• Walks Josh Thole on seven pitches
• Battles for thirteen pitches, still walks Just Turner. Game tied.
• Scott Hairston hits into fielder's choice. Out made at home.
• Kirk Nieuwenhuis game winning hit.

Bell's third blown save in only five chances.

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Misadventures of the Tangerine Troops, Vol. III (The Inning from Hell)

The Marlins farted away a game in epic fashion Saturday night, and in the process gave us a nominee for worst fuckup of the season. There are so many tangerine dunce caps to go around for Saturday's effort, perhaps the beat writers will start mentioning them in the same breath as Lo Viste t-shirts.

"Closer" (I'm using that word lightly here) Heath Bell entered the game in the top of the ninth inning with a 4-1 lead over the Houston Astros. At the time the Marlins' win expectancy was 97%. After Chris Snyder flew out to left field to start the inning, that number rose to 99%. Bell proceeded to give up the following:

• Double to Jose Altuve, advanced to third when Emilio Bonifacio bobbled the ball after it bounced off the right-center wall
• RBI single to Travis Buck

Altuve's double, it bears mentioning, was totally catchable, but Bonifacio took a bad angle on the ball and had to reach at an awkward angle in order to make a catch (which he did unsuccessfully). It's okay, it's not like Bonifacio has been playing infield all his life (oh, wait...).

The Inning from Hell continued:

• Jordan Schafer reached base on a catcher's interference by John Buck. 
• Jed Lowrie flies out to left field.

Now there are two outs, and the Marlins still have a 2-run lead (albeit with 2 Astros on base). Miami's win expectancy is now at 93%

• JD Martinez hits an RBI single, Schafer advances to third
• Carlos Lee hits an RBI single, Justin Maxwell (pinch-running for Martinez) advances to third

Now the score is tied, and Bell's afternoon is mercifully over. Randy Choate steps in to face B Bogusevic, and then this happens: 

Oy.

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Ten Very Specific Predictions for 2012

11. Giancarlo Stanton will realize  this photo is a double-entrende for what happens to Marlins fans when he hits a home run.

1. Ozzie Guillen will not beef with anyone in the front office. The Ozzie lifecycle in Chicago started out nicely, as far as Jerry Reinsdorf was concerned. His confrontations with the White Sox' front office did not start until a few years into his tenure. Expect that pattern to repeat itself in Miami, buying David Samson a year or two before having to deal with an angry Ozzie. Guillen will definitely ignore Jeff Loria if he tries to talk to him from the stands during a game, though.
2. Logan Morrison will accidentally post a photo of his penis on Twitter. "Accidentally" being the operative word here.
3. Strip Club with Stanton will rename itself I Want to Go to Shake Shack With Heath Bell.
4. Omar Infante starts acting out to get noticed sometime in May. He'll begin by ritually burning a Lo Viste shirt in the locker room.
5. Juan Carlos Oviedo will eventually receive a visa and rejoin the Marlins (once he serves a six-week suspension). Unfortunately, he will have to leave the team (and the country) again in August when it is revealed that he is D.B. Cooper. Oviedo will go into hiding in Tajikistan.
6. I will stop following all the beat writers on Twitter in August after receiving five updates on a John Buck foul ball. Though I will announce my decision, no one will join my crusade to ignore facts that deserve to be ignored.
7. Ricky Nolasco posts an FIP in the 3.50 range again, but still manages to post an ERA above 5 and perpetuate the myth that "some pitchers just know how to win." Jack McKeon will feel vindicated.
8. The budding friendship between Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes goes full Jolie-Thornton by midseason as the pair each get half a heart shape tattooed on their chests. When they take their shirts off and stand next to each other arm-in-arm, the half hearts form a whole heart. 
9. Josh Johnson pitches lights-out in April and May (again), but yet another promising season is derailed by injury in June when an errant jet of water from the Marlins Park home run structure manages to make it all the way to the Marlins dugout. Johnson slips on the ensuing puddle, tearing his rotator cuff in the process. An enraged fanbase storms the outfield when it is revealed he will miss the remainder of the season, whereupon they destroy the sculpture.
10. 88-74, first Wild Card, lose in NLCS to Cincinnati.

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We're Going to Need a New Closer Nickname...

Heath Bell immediately after learning the clubhouse spread includes prosciutto-wrapped melon

If you had Heath Bell in the "First Marlins free agent signing of the winter" pool, you just hit the jackpot:

The Miami Marlins made their first big signing of the offseason Thursday night, signing former San Diego Padres closer Heath Bell to a 3-year, $27 million contract.

According to ESPN.com, Bell and the Marlins have all but agreed to the deal, which may include an option for a fourth year. Bell is expected to take a physical on Friday.

All that future revenue from the new stadium set to open next season must have been burning the figurative hole in the Marlins' pocket. Bell will make more money than all but Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson in 2012.

Two years ago, when the Marlins were reportedly in talks to acquire Bell via trade with San Diego, Ted noticed that Bell's rotundity might bode well for the Marlins. We can only hope the pattern of fat closers being lights-out for the Fish continues.

There has been quite a bit of debate about this signing on Twitter since the news broke. Here is the deal: The Marlins are paying $9 million a year for a guy who blew one fewer save than Leo Nunez/Juan Carlos Oviedo did last season. The similarities continue: both struck out roughly 7.5 batters per nine innings and had very nearly the same BABIP (.268 for Nunez and .261 for Bell). Nunez would have cost the Marlins $5-6 million in 2012. So that is $3 million for a few extra saves a year.

Bell posted 0.5 WAR in 2011, even with his gaudy saves total (43 - his third straight year of 40+ saves). In five years with San Diego, he put up 8.2 WAR, or 1.6 WAR per year. If that can be assumed to be a reasonable expected WAR/year, then the Marlins have just paid $5.5 million per win, which is a bit too much for my tastes.

There has been speculation that the signing sends a good message to other free agents that the Marlins are willing to pay for talent. This is nonsensical. The Marlins could send the same message by simply offering a lot of money to any of their other targets who either play every day or pitch more than 80 innings a year.

The other argument being thrown around is that the Marlins can overpay for a closer now that they will be raking in the dough from the new stadium. This ignores two important facts:

1. No team (not even the Yankees) has unlimited money. The $27 million being paid to Bell over the next 3 years could be better spent in a variety of ways, like locking up Mike Stanton long term.
2. As Michael Jong of Fish Stripes has pointed out, the Marlins have had much success in recent years patching together a bullpen on the cheap, and Steve Cishek and Edward Mujica could both have been viable closer options at a fraction of the cost of Bell. Just because you have the money does not mean you should spend it on a splashy free agent.

This is not to say that Bell is a bad closer. He will probably be good (so long as his dip from 11 to 7 K/9 in 2011 is not the beginning of a bad trend). But he is not worth $27 million, at least not in my opinion.

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