Easy there, Giancarlo

Sometimes I wonder if Giancarlo Stanton knows exactly how powerful he is. Earlier this week he broke a scoreboard (Roy Hobbs achievement: UNLOCKED). Last night he nearly decapitated Logan Morrison:

Easy there, dude, we actually want LoMo around.

Onto other news I haven't had a chance to mention this week (thanks, school!). The Juan Carlos Coaster is coming back!

A Dominican newspaper has reported that Juan Carlos Oviedo received a U.S. visa on Wednesday, allowing him to return to the country and begin serving an 8-week suspension from Major League Baseball for playing under a false identity.

Oviedo still has to serve an eight-week suspension, and probably play a few minor league games to make sure he remembers how to pitch, so we probably won't see him on the field until August.

Also, Emilio Bonifacio is out 4-6 weeks after undergoing thumb surgery this morning. Now that Heath Bell is on the team, we don't need Boni to be our punching bag, so we wish him a speedy recovery.

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Someday Our Former Closer Will Come

Juan Carlos Oviedo/Leo Nunez is still in the Dominican Republic, but his return to the Marlins' bullpen will be delayed even more, as MLB has extended his ID-theft suspension to eight weeks from six weeks. Now he can return to the Marlins no earlier than late June. Which is too bad, since our new closer is only good at one thing (and it is not getting outs):

Only Heath Bell can make us pine for the glory days of the Leocoaster.

#FreeLeoOrJuanCarlosOrWhoever

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Ten Very Specific Predictions for 2012

11. Giancarlo Stanton will realize  this photo is a double-entrende for what happens to Marlins fans when he hits a home run.

1. Ozzie Guillen will not beef with anyone in the front office. The Ozzie lifecycle in Chicago started out nicely, as far as Jerry Reinsdorf was concerned. His confrontations with the White Sox' front office did not start until a few years into his tenure. Expect that pattern to repeat itself in Miami, buying David Samson a year or two before having to deal with an angry Ozzie. Guillen will definitely ignore Jeff Loria if he tries to talk to him from the stands during a game, though.
2. Logan Morrison will accidentally post a photo of his penis on Twitter. "Accidentally" being the operative word here.
3. Strip Club with Stanton will rename itself I Want to Go to Shake Shack With Heath Bell.
4. Omar Infante starts acting out to get noticed sometime in May. He'll begin by ritually burning a Lo Viste shirt in the locker room.
5. Juan Carlos Oviedo will eventually receive a visa and rejoin the Marlins (once he serves a six-week suspension). Unfortunately, he will have to leave the team (and the country) again in August when it is revealed that he is D.B. Cooper. Oviedo will go into hiding in Tajikistan.
6. I will stop following all the beat writers on Twitter in August after receiving five updates on a John Buck foul ball. Though I will announce my decision, no one will join my crusade to ignore facts that deserve to be ignored.
7. Ricky Nolasco posts an FIP in the 3.50 range again, but still manages to post an ERA above 5 and perpetuate the myth that "some pitchers just know how to win." Jack McKeon will feel vindicated.
8. The budding friendship between Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes goes full Jolie-Thornton by midseason as the pair each get half a heart shape tattooed on their chests. When they take their shirts off and stand next to each other arm-in-arm, the half hearts form a whole heart. 
9. Josh Johnson pitches lights-out in April and May (again), but yet another promising season is derailed by injury in June when an errant jet of water from the Marlins Park home run structure manages to make it all the way to the Marlins dugout. Johnson slips on the ensuing puddle, tearing his rotator cuff in the process. An enraged fanbase storms the outfield when it is revealed he will miss the remainder of the season, whereupon they destroy the sculpture.
10. 88-74, first Wild Card, lose in NLCS to Cincinnati.

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We're Going to Need a New Closer Nickname...

Heath Bell immediately after learning the clubhouse spread includes prosciutto-wrapped melon

If you had Heath Bell in the "First Marlins free agent signing of the winter" pool, you just hit the jackpot:

The Miami Marlins made their first big signing of the offseason Thursday night, signing former San Diego Padres closer Heath Bell to a 3-year, $27 million contract.

According to ESPN.com, Bell and the Marlins have all but agreed to the deal, which may include an option for a fourth year. Bell is expected to take a physical on Friday.

All that future revenue from the new stadium set to open next season must have been burning the figurative hole in the Marlins' pocket. Bell will make more money than all but Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson in 2012.

Two years ago, when the Marlins were reportedly in talks to acquire Bell via trade with San Diego, Ted noticed that Bell's rotundity might bode well for the Marlins. We can only hope the pattern of fat closers being lights-out for the Fish continues.

There has been quite a bit of debate about this signing on Twitter since the news broke. Here is the deal: The Marlins are paying $9 million a year for a guy who blew one fewer save than Leo Nunez/Juan Carlos Oviedo did last season. The similarities continue: both struck out roughly 7.5 batters per nine innings and had very nearly the same BABIP (.268 for Nunez and .261 for Bell). Nunez would have cost the Marlins $5-6 million in 2012. So that is $3 million for a few extra saves a year.

Bell posted 0.5 WAR in 2011, even with his gaudy saves total (43 - his third straight year of 40+ saves). In five years with San Diego, he put up 8.2 WAR, or 1.6 WAR per year. If that can be assumed to be a reasonable expected WAR/year, then the Marlins have just paid $5.5 million per win, which is a bit too much for my tastes.

There has been speculation that the signing sends a good message to other free agents that the Marlins are willing to pay for talent. This is nonsensical. The Marlins could send the same message by simply offering a lot of money to any of their other targets who either play every day or pitch more than 80 innings a year.

The other argument being thrown around is that the Marlins can overpay for a closer now that they will be raking in the dough from the new stadium. This ignores two important facts:

1. No team (not even the Yankees) has unlimited money. The $27 million being paid to Bell over the next 3 years could be better spent in a variety of ways, like locking up Mike Stanton long term.
2. As Michael Jong of Fish Stripes has pointed out, the Marlins have had much success in recent years patching together a bullpen on the cheap, and Steve Cishek and Edward Mujica could both have been viable closer options at a fraction of the cost of Bell. Just because you have the money does not mean you should spend it on a splashy free agent.

This is not to say that Bell is a bad closer. He will probably be good (so long as his dip from 11 to 7 K/9 in 2011 is not the beginning of a bad trend). But he is not worth $27 million, at least not in my opinion.

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The Leocoaster is actually the Oviedocoaster

Leo Nunez has left the country:

Florida Marlins closer Leo Nunez has been playing under an assumed name, and the issue prompted him to return Thursday to his native Dominican Republic, two people familiar with his immigration status said.

Weeeeeeeird. Contrary to initial reports, his real name is not Leo Costa.

Both people said the Marlins have been aware of the issue for several months. They spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because Dominican and team officials haven't made any public comment on the case.

Let's pause for some guest commentary:

Glad we held onto Leo at the deadline.

Back to the story.

One of the people said Nunez's real name is Juan Carlos Oviedo and he's 29, a year older than listed in the team media guide. The Marlins placed Nunez on Major League Baseball's restricted list, and he isn't expected to pitch in the final week of the season.

That is officially the weirdest baseball story I've ever read. That is probably the end of Leo Nunez as a Marlin. It was already unlikely that the Fish would keep him this offseason, when he will get a hefty pay raise thanks to arbitration. Now it's an impossibility, coinciding with a huge drop in his trade value to boot.

Clearly this is why the team did not deal him at the trade deadline. If they knew about the issue, there was no way they could withhold it from any trading partner, and who would trade for a player that could be forced to leave the country at any time?

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The most Marlins loss of the season

@robneyer: McKeon takes out his closer, brings in the lefty specialist, Giambi crushes a 1-and-2 pitch for a line-drive, three-run, walk-off job. Wow.

The Leocoaster strikes again, and wastes a genuine (if Coors Field assisted) #Monsterdong!

/sadtrombone

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Solidarity

Not trading Nunez if possible is silly

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Request: Trade The LeoCoaster

We're in the last week until the trade deadline (Sunday at 4:00pm) and with that, the Diehards would like to express our stance that the Marlins should absolutely trade Leo Nunez. It can be broken down thusly:

1. The Marlins aren't winning anything this year. They're 16 games back in the division (not to mention, still rooted in the cellar) and 10 back in the wild card (with 7 teams in their way). If you're like me and fancy the "Get to 90 wins" mantra, the Fish would need to close the season going 41-19. Not happening.
2. Leo Nunez will not be with the team next year. There's always a chance, but why would the Marlins would pay a non-elite closer somewhere in the range of $5 million? The club's pen has struggled at times, but there are promising young arms and the team would much rather spend that kind of money finding the next 10 Emilio Bonifacios.
   
3. No one trades for relievers in the offseason (except us!). If the Fish try to ship off the LeoCoaster in the winter, we shouldn't expect a good haul. However, many teams that are in contention in July get the false notion that they are one strong bullpen arm away from perhaps winning the World Series. because of that, they're willing to let go of solid prospects or major league ready players (Adrian Gonzalez!).

Your move Marlins front office. I look forward to you asking Edward Mierda Mujica to stay awake until the 9th inning or later and ask him to get three outs.

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You may not get many more rides on the Leocoaster

Another NBCMiami piece today, this time on potential trade deals:

With a playoff appearance looking more and more remote, the Florida Marlins are reportedly considering trading a few of their pitchers before the July 31 trade deadline.

According to CBSSports.com, the Fish are amenable to dealing starter Javier Vazquez and relievers Leo Nunez and Randy Choate.

Nunez will get $5+ million in arbitration this winter, and that's a lot to pay for a middling closer. Ted and I are of the same opinion on closers: There are usually 2 or 3 in all of baseball worth their weight in gold (think Mariano Rivera or John Smoltz in his brief closer stint), and the rest are interchangeable (SCWS thinks so, too). The Marlins (wisely) won't pay for Leo next year, so they may as well try to get something for him now.

Vazquez is an interesting case due to his no-trade clause. But he's on a one-year deal, so it makes little sense to keep him if the Marlins can't make a run at the playoffs. Finding a taker for Vazquez could be difficult, but the Tigers once traded John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander, so anything is possible.

I think the Marlins should hold on to Choate, though. He is only due $1.5 million in 2012, and he has been quite effective against lefties this year (facing 57 left-handed hitters in 2011, he has allowed only 5 hits and 1 walk, striking out 23). Unless someone blows them away with an offer, it would be wise to keep him.

Only slightly-related, but interesting nonetheless: Choate and Vazquez were traded for each other in 2003 when the Yankees sent Choate, Nick Johnson and Juan Rivera to Montreal for Javy.

One other thing:

Starters Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez are off the table, though, as the Marlins want to "build around" the trio as they move into their new stadium next season.

I would not have been surprised if Sanchez were dealt this year, but apparently the team wants to pay for his services over the next few years. Considering his injury history though, the Marlins might be declining to sell Sanchez when his value is highest. Here's hoping that doesn't turn out to be a mistake.

Speaking of selling high, remember when everyone was mad about the Marlins trading Dan Uggla? As of July 17, he's slashing .189/.264/.366, good for an OPS+ of 72. And the Braves have him for four more years. At least he makes up for it with his -1.2 defensive WAR, amirite?

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The Leocoaster Meets MarmLOL

Carlos Marmol enters the ninth inning with a 2-0 lead, and fails to record an out:

Marmol's ERA for the evening: infinite. His WPA: -.810 (!!). It was the most beautiful Jorge Julio save not created by the OG. Leo enters the bottom of the ninth with a 4-run lead, but even he has to concede defeat on this occasion. It is like the Grateful Dead opening for the Dark Star Orchestra, the imitator following the master.

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A 10-Fingered Antonio Alfonseca

Leo Nunez converted his 16th save in as many chances Friday night as the Marlins defeated Tampa 5-3. He retired all three hitters in the ninth in succession for only the seventh time in 23 appearances. In five of those seven times, he earned a save. 22 of his 23 appearances have lasted a single inning. The one outlier, a 2/3 inning save on May 1 in Cincinnati, occurred when he entered a 9-5 game with one out in the ninth inning and runners on second and third (he walked one batter but recorded the final two outs while holding the Reds scoreless).

In contrast to those 7 1-2-3 innings, Leo has amassed 10 Alfonseca saves.

Alfonseca Save (n.): recorded when a pitcher enters the game at the start of an inning in a save situation, allows multiple runners on base and/or gives up runs, but still manages to record a save. Pioneered by the twelve-fingered Antonio Alfonseca, whose tenure with the Marlins (1997-2001) featured many such saves.

No two Alfonseca saves are alike, so let's take a look at each one.

1. April 6: Enters ninth inning with a 7-4 lead against Washington. Strikes out Pudge Rodriguez, induces a groundout from Alex Cora. An Ian Desmond single is followed by a Jayson Werth walk. Representing the tying run, Ryan Zimmerman strikes out swinging. This is a sterling example of an Alfonseca save.
2. April 8: Enters ninth inning with a 4-2 lead @ Houston. Brett Wallace homers to lead off, halving the lead. Nunez retires the next two batters, but then gives up a single to JR Towles. With Jason Bourgeois pinch hitting for the pitcher, pinch runner Joe Inglett is caught stealing by catcher Brett Hayes. This is an even better Alfonseca save than the first, since Nunez reduced the Marlins' lead to one run.
3. April 14: Enters ninth inning with a 6-5 lead @ Atlanta. Alex Gonzalez leads off with a single, but Leo retires the next three batters in 9 pitches. In a one-run game, a single baserunner earns you the Alfonseca save.
4. April 15: Enters ninth inning with a 4-3 lead @ Philadelphia. Nunez issues a one-out walk to John Mabry, then induces 2 flyouts with 3 pitches.
5. April 29: Enters ninth inning with a 7-4 lead @ Cincinnati. Leo gets so close to meltdown the dugout had to put on radiation suits. Back-to-back one-out doubles cut the lead to 7-5. Nunez strikes out pinch hitter Chris Heisey swinging, then gives up an RBI single to Drew Stubbs, who steals second with two outs. Nunez strikes out Jay Bruce looking though, and a crisis is averted. His most death-defying feat of the season thus far.
6. May 2: Enters ninth inning with a 4-3 lead @ Cincinnati: Nunez walks the leadoff batter, and follows it up with a good defensive play to nab the runner at second on a bunt attempt for the first out. Nunez strikes out Allen Craig swinging for out number two. Against Ryan Theriot, the runner advances to second base on a wild pitch, then gets to third on a single. Leo cuts the rally short by inducing a fielder's choice from Colby Rasmus, though. Very close call.
7. May 4: Enters ninth inning with a 4-2 lead @ St. Louis: A one-out home run by Jon Jay cuts the lead in half, with Albert Pujols on deck. Nunez walks him on four pitches, and things are getting dicey, when Matt Holliday improbably grounds into a game-ending double play. Fun fact, Leo threw 10 balls and 13 strikes that inning.
8. May 10: Enters ninth inning with a 2-1 lead against Philadelphia. Leo works around a one-out walk, getting two straight ground outs.
9. May 14: Enters ninth inning with a 1-0 lead against Washington. The first two batters reach on a walk and single. A fielder's choice puts runners at the corners, but a pop-up followed by a flyout quell the Nationals. He very nearly spoiled an Anibal Sanchez gem.
10. May 16: Enters eleventh inning with a 2-1 lead @ New York. Leo retires the first two batters, but Jonathan Niese a pitcher pinch hitting (!), legs out a triple. Nunez strikes out Jose Reyes to end the game, ensuring Burke Badenhop's heroics was not all for naught.

That's ten appearances in which the tying run reached base. Six of those (April 6, 8, 29; May 2, 14, 16) were quite hair-raising. You can view a spreadsheet of his saves here, Alfonseca saves are highlighted, and I'll keep it updated as the season progresses. We'll update you occasionally. Should be a wild ride.

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This Is Our Closer

Yesterday's blow by blow:

• Leo Nunez enters the 9th inning with a 1-0 lead. The Marlins hold an 81% chance of winning.
• He walks Jayson Werth. Win probability now at 68%.
  
• Base hit by Laynce Nix. Game is now a toss-up with both teams right around a 50% chance of winning. I bunker down underneath my desk.
  
• Fielders choice by Adam Laroche, out made at 2nd. Werth moves to third. Marlins 55% to win.
• Wilson Ramos saves the day for the Fish by popping up on the first pitch, not deep enough to score Werth. Win probability skyrockets back to 81%.
• Jerry Hairston flies out to left field ending the game. Just how Antonio Alfonseca drew it up. Leo is now 14-14 in save opportunities. Perfect.

All win probability numbers courtesy of FanGraphs

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That Didn't Take Long...

Looks like the front office is not comfortable enough with Leo Nuñez to not bring in a possible replacement should things go downhill. The team signed former Royals closer Mike MacDougal today. Nuñez is reportedly still the closer, but now the team has more than one pitcher they can reasonably slot in the closer spot.

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(Insert Atlanta Hitter Here) Struck Out Swinging

Who said September out of contention baseball couldn't be fun? Ricky Nolasco struck out 16 batters last night, which is a new Marlins record, eclipsing Livan Hernandez and Eric Gregg's epic performance in the 1997 NLCS (also against the Atlanta Braves). He struck out nine batters in a row at one point, which was one short of Tom Seaver's major league record. To show the magnitude of just how much sixteen strikeouts is, I've listed them all, as they appeared in the play-by-play.

1st: N McLouth struck out swinging.
1st: M Prado struck out looking.
2nd: B McCann struck out looking.
3rd: A LaRoche struck out swinging.
3rd: M Diaz struck out swinging.
3rd: J Vazquez struck out looking.
4th: N McLouth struck out swinging.
4th: M Prado struck out swinging.
4th: C Jones struck out swinging.
5th: B McCann struck out swinging.
5th: G Anderson struck out swinging.
5th: Y Escobar struck out swinging.
6th: G Norton struck out swinging.
6th: N McLouth struck out swinging.
7th: M Diaz struck out swinging.
8th: B Conrad struck out swinging.

The Marlins won the game 5-4¹. That coupled with Tuesday night's win just about kills Atlanta's playoff chances. The win also gives the team 85 for the year which means this has statistically been the third best season in franchise history (or best non-playoff/World Series year).

¹ Not before another Leo Nunez fail and a stunning bailout by Brendan Donnely (not really) and Matt Diaz of the Braves. Truly strange.

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You're Doing It Wrong

The object of the Alfonseca-save is to allow many baserunners and only one fewer run than the current lead. Even for an Alfonseca-blown-save, you are supposed to manage an epic long inning with things like walks and singles. Instead you gave us a Greggorian (yes, new term). This is a blown save so quick that you don't even comprehend what happened. Today's Leo Nunez outing is abuot as textbook as they come. He entered the ninth inning with a 4-2 lead. Then...

3 batters faced
5 pitches thrown
0 outs recorded
2 home runs allowed
3 runs allowed

Fail. Calling it a fail might actually be underselling it. This was a swift kick to the stomach. Sigh.

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It's Like He Realizes the Objective is to Get Outs

How about that? A pitcher who gets outs and doesn't issue many walks, all the while inducing groundball outs and a few double plays...

	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
	5.0	5	1	1	1	3	1	81-53	4.97

HLD&S is vindicated for now. It's only one start, though, so let's not anoint Burke Badenhop just yet. Either way, it is always nice to get a win off of the wife-beater.

As for Leo Nunez and Matt Lindstrom... well, I could do without the Alfonseca hold and save, guys...

AP Photo/Tom Mihalek

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Pour Me Another

Image via GameTicker

Florida	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Volstad	7.0	4	3	2	1	6	2	2.70
Meyer (H, 4)	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3.52
Nunez (H, 3)	0.1	1	1	1	1	1	0	4.32
Pinto (BS, 1)	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.42
Calero	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.13
Kensing (L, 0-1)	1.0	4	2	2	0	1	0	9.82

Another night, another blown save following another quality start. Exit Josh Johnson and Matt Lindstrom, enter Chris Volstad, Leo Nunez, Renyel Pinto, and Logan Kensing. One wonders at which point the starting rotation attempts a coup and installs martial law in the bullpen, renaming it The People's Republic of the Florida Marlins Bullpen. For now, though, I'll just begin drinking after the sixth inning.

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Blown Save #1

via (gameticker.net)

This graph represents the Marlins win probability throught Friday night's game. Also that sharp decline in the 9th inning may also represent the amount of activity in my brain at that moment. It was really mind numbing as Shane Victorino blasted a two out grand slam to take the Phillies from 3-2 down, to 6-3 up. It had been coming. Lindstrom couldn't spot the fastball and get ahead. He needs to be checked out, and if he's 100% healthy then he should resume his familiar 8th inning role. The closer can be Leo Nunez. He has earned it.

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