The Marmolcoaster Claims its First Victim of 2014

That victim: what would have been the Marlins' sixth win of the season. Nursing a one-run lead in the eighth, Marmol served this up to Jayson Werth with the bases loaded...

But really, who could have predicted such a thing?

Marlins have made the Carlos Marmol signing official and they're just fucking with us now
— Marlins Diehards (@MarlinsDiehards) February 11, 2014

"...as he airmails that warmup toss all the way to the screen..." The Marmol Era is off to a brilliant start.
— Marlins Diehards (@MarlinsDiehards) April 2, 2014

Oh...

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There's no '$' in Bullpen

Over at Fish Stripes, Michael Jong plots the Marlins' bullpen performance versus payroll for the past five years: 

It is not a pretty picture. The team has spent a ton of money (mostly on Heath Bell and soon Juan Carlos Oviedo, once his suspension ends). And the bullpen has been much worse in 2012, though the fielding-independent stats suggest the bullpen is not entirely at fault. Jong argues that the steady FIP- stats (which is weighted against the rest of the league; in other words, the Marlins bullpen has been 6 to 10% better than the average MLB pitcher in each of the last five years).

Be warned.

Clearly, the Marlins have overpaid for relievers this year. Besides giving Heath Bell top dollar, the Marlins traded Cameron Maybin two years ago for Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb (Maybin's WAR in 2011-2012: 4.9; Webb and Mujica's combined: 1.4!). 

All those dollars could have been used to address actual areas of need. The Marlins have been forced to play a converted outfielder (Emilio Bonifacio) and a Quad-A guy (Justin Ruggiano, whose .457 BABIP suggests is bound for a big crash) in centerfield. They could have kept Maybin, or used Bell's money on a free agent like Yoenis Cespedes, and probably get the same results out of the bullpen this year. Paying top dollar for a "proven closer" will get good press in December, but it often comes with opportunity costs that end up hurting the team in the long run.

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WTF HEATH?!?

Heath Bell is at it again. On Wednesday, he was called in to pitch the ninth against San Francisco with a 2-0 lead. His outing went thusly:

1. Brandon Belt doubled to CF
2. Joaquin Arias singled to RF, Belt scores
3. Buster Posey singled to RF, Arias to third

No worries! It's not like the Marlins are paying him $27 million over three seasons or anything...

Ozzie Guillen mercifully pulled Bell for Steve Cishek. After striking out Brett Pill, Cishek allowed the tying run to score on a brilliantly executed squeeze bunt by Gregor Blanco. Under the byzantine rules of the save, this means Cishek blew the save, but Bell did all the damage here. Bell's WPA during the inning was -0.556, while Cishek's was 0.111.

Bell had this to say about his troubles after the game:

I just feel really bad because Zambrano pitched a heckuva game. It still hurts, but it's one of those things that, for whatever reason, I'm not having any luck this year. The tide will change for me, hopefully sooner rather than later.

Heath is half-right. So far this year, his BABIP has been .387, a full 84 points above his career average. BABIP is out of his control, and we all know the Marlins defense has been less than stellar this season.

But what Bell can control are his strikeout and walk rates, which have been abysmal. His 2012 BB% is 17.4%, compared to 8.4% for his career. And his K% is a paltry 10.9%, down from a career mark of 24.7%. He is having a hard time fooling hitters, as shown by a decrease in O-Swing% (percentage of swings at pitches outside the strike-zone) to 22.0% from 31.7% last year. Opposing hitters' contact rate has jumped to 88.5% from 81.2%.

What does this all mean? Meet your new Marlins closer: Steve Cishek. Guillen has not publicly said what he plans to do about the closer situation, but the writing is on the wall.

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Someday Our Former Closer Will Come

Juan Carlos Oviedo/Leo Nunez is still in the Dominican Republic, but his return to the Marlins' bullpen will be delayed even more, as MLB has extended his ID-theft suspension to eight weeks from six weeks. Now he can return to the Marlins no earlier than late June. Which is too bad, since our new closer is only good at one thing (and it is not getting outs):

Only Heath Bell can make us pine for the glory days of the Leocoaster.

#FreeLeoOrJuanCarlosOrWhoever

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Misadventures of the Tangerine Troops: Vol. IV

Heath Bell enters with a 2-1 lead in the ninth inning.

• Walks David Wright
• Retires Lucas Duda on groundout. right to second base
• Walks Ike Davis on four pitches
• Walks Josh Thole on seven pitches
• Battles for thirteen pitches, still walks Just Turner. Game tied.
• Scott Hairston hits into fielder's choice. Out made at home.
• Kirk Nieuwenhuis game winning hit.

Bell's third blown save in only five chances.

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Spring Training Preview: Pitchers

In 2010, the Marlins pitching staff was a two-headed monster that made many a Marlins fan hit the bottle. The Marlins were actually 10th in MLB in FIP* last year, suggesting better defense could have improved our perception of the pitching staff. Even so, the bullpen blew 25 saves (only the Orioles were worse), and aside from staff ace Josh Johnson, the starting rotation was underwhelming. Again, it should be noted that the starting rotation was hindered by a porous defense. Ricky Nolasco, despite posting a stellar 4.45 K/BB, saw a 0.65 run difference between his ERA and FIP. Then there was the rotating 5th rotation spot. Nate Robertson was given 18 starts, solely because the Marlins had no better option at the beginning of the year.

The front office made a relative splash this offseason when it signed Javier Vazquez to a one-year, $7 million free agent deal. The signing was a quintessential Marlins move, taking a limited chance on a veteran coming off a down year, hoping for the best. In 2009, Vazquez put together an admirable season for the Atlanta Braves, logging almost 220 innings with a 9.77 K/9 and 2.77 FIP, good for 6.5 WAR. But in 2010, pitching for the Yankees, Vazquez fell back to earth, hard. Limited to under 160 innings, his K/9 dropped to 6.92 while his FIP doubled to 5.77. Which Vazquez will Marlins fans see in 2011? One would hope the move back to the National League will help, but it remains to be seen. In 2010 his average fastball fell below 90 mph (Marlin Maniac has a good discussion here), and he also exhibited control problems.

One other potential red flag with Vazquez: he requested (and was given) a full no-trade clause. If he struggles, the Marlins will have to eat his salary, either wasting a rotation spot on him (unlikely) or demoting him to long relief work (more likely).

Vazquez will be inserted into the middle of the rotation, joining returning starters Johnson, Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, and Chris Volstad. Of the starting five, Volstad is the biggest question mark. His groundball percentage has declined in each of the past two seasons (from 53.4% in 2008 to 49.5% to 47.9%). Considering his status as a contact pitcher (career K/9: 5.62, lowest in the rotation), this is troublesome.

The bullpen will likely be a source of fan stress again in 2011 (though really, when isn't a bullpen stress inducing?). Leo Nunez returns as closer, with Clay Hensley setting him up. The only other returner is Brian Sanches.

To their credit, the Marlins made relief pitching a priority this offseason, acquiring Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb for Cameron Maybin and Randy Choate via free agency. All three figure to should win a spot in the bullpen barring a bad spring. Dustin Richardson, acquired from Boston for Andrew Miller, could also grab a bullpen spot. Burke Badenhop, ever the stalwart, could get the long relief/spot starter role out of Spring Training. [Update: Ted informs me I forgot about Mike Dunn. I suspect I'm not the first person to do so. But hey, a guy who walked 17 in 19.0 innings last year, can't be all bad, right?]

Will the bullpen improve? I have no idea. I try to think about the bullpen as little as possible, and as a result I have become much more content.

Useless Opening Day Lineup Projections!
Starting Rotation:

1. Josh Johnson
2. Ricky Nolasco
3. Javier Vazquez
4. Anibal Sanchez
5. Chris Volstad (LHP)

Bullpen:

• Leo Nunez (closer)
• Clay Hensley (setup)
• Randy Choate (LHP - LOOGY)
• Ryan Webb
• Burke Badenhop (long relief, spot starter)
• Edward Mujica
• Brian Sanches (7th inning?)

*FIP is basically ERA with fielding and park factors stripped out.

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Yer Doin' it Wrong!

For those of you that haven't heard by now, Chris Coghlan has been placed on the DL after suffering a knee injury during the pie to the face celebration following the latest Marlins walkoff win. I blame the bullpen, of course, which only adds to the long list of bad things for which they are responsible:

• Most Marlins losses
• Breaking Twitter
• People with high blood pressure in South Florida
• Lost Josh Johnson Wins and maybe a Cy Young
• Chris Coghlan's knee injury, which will only give Emilio Bonifacio more playing time

The last item is what hurts the most. But we shall move on.

Anyway, the team will need a new postgame celebration. My thoughts? Why not just eat pie? Not a shaving cream pie obviously, my pick would be key lime. Dave suggests that no players should be allowed to hug or chest bump unless they are wearing the new team-approved victory suit.

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Snake Revenge: Stage One Complete

I was going to write a post yesterday evening about how we needed to avenge our last series with the Diamondbacks, which was most assuredly awful. We managed to win game one of a doubleheader after nearly blowing it, but lost the other three games in the series. In each of those losses we had a 2- or 3-run lead as late as the seventh inning but coughed each one up due to a collapsing bullpen and some guy named Mark Reynolds, who sounds like he should be sitting in a cubicle next to me, instead of being a major league baseball player. This was also shortly after Arizona fired there manager and was playing poorly before the series. Lucky for them, we were a slump-buster at that point in the season.

But that was then, and this is now. Just last week we overcame our longtime nemesis, the Somali Pittsburgh Pirates, with an assist from the motivational writings of Adam Smoot. Now we shall take down these D-backs, or better yet, let them take down themselves. Good God their bullpen is awful. Last night they coughed up a seven run lead and it only took them two innings to do so. Not only did they give up the lead, they allowed us to double them up 14-7, to eliminate any chance of the Marlins bullpen returning the favor. Two errors and shoddy fielding also helped out the Arizona pen in getting their job done.

I don't think much motivational writing is needed. Marlins, if you're reading, just wait for strikes, don't get yourself out, and put the ball in play. That should increase our chances of winning above 100%. Thanks! Stage two is tonight with the resurgent Ricky Nolasco taking on ::looks up pitching matchup:: Dan Haren. Uh oh, forgot about Danny. The D-backs pen could get the night off.

(image via daylife.com)

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