Lights Out

By now you've read about Anibal Sanchez' near no-hitter last night. His stat-line:

9.0 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 1 H, 3 BB, 9 K, .315 WPA

Had Dexter Fowler's 9th inning broken-bat single not made it through the infield, it would have been the 25th no-hitter in MLB history in which the losing team scored a run (out of 270 total). Here's the highlight reel. I don't have too much to add, but Joe Frisaro's recap for MLB.com has some good quotes:

"Everything was working today," said Sanchez, whose fastball had life at 94-95 mph. "In my last start, I saw my velocity was good. I know I am throwing harder than last year. I'm feeling it right now. I'm using my breaking ball for strikeouts."

"I was swinging at bad pitches and had fouled one ball back in four [plate appearances]," Fowler said. "He had some good stuff tonight. I got some good wood on it. I would say that was my best swing but he blew my bat up."

"Anibal has a very strong mental approach for the game," [Edwin] Rodriguez said. "It takes mental toughness to keep the composure, and he did. He was kind of effectively wild today."

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Spring Training Preview: Pitchers

In 2010, the Marlins pitching staff was a two-headed monster that made many a Marlins fan hit the bottle. The Marlins were actually 10th in MLB in FIP* last year, suggesting better defense could have improved our perception of the pitching staff. Even so, the bullpen blew 25 saves (only the Orioles were worse), and aside from staff ace Josh Johnson, the starting rotation was underwhelming. Again, it should be noted that the starting rotation was hindered by a porous defense. Ricky Nolasco, despite posting a stellar 4.45 K/BB, saw a 0.65 run difference between his ERA and FIP. Then there was the rotating 5th rotation spot. Nate Robertson was given 18 starts, solely because the Marlins had no better option at the beginning of the year.

The front office made a relative splash this offseason when it signed Javier Vazquez to a one-year, $7 million free agent deal. The signing was a quintessential Marlins move, taking a limited chance on a veteran coming off a down year, hoping for the best. In 2009, Vazquez put together an admirable season for the Atlanta Braves, logging almost 220 innings with a 9.77 K/9 and 2.77 FIP, good for 6.5 WAR. But in 2010, pitching for the Yankees, Vazquez fell back to earth, hard. Limited to under 160 innings, his K/9 dropped to 6.92 while his FIP doubled to 5.77. Which Vazquez will Marlins fans see in 2011? One would hope the move back to the National League will help, but it remains to be seen. In 2010 his average fastball fell below 90 mph (Marlin Maniac has a good discussion here), and he also exhibited control problems.

One other potential red flag with Vazquez: he requested (and was given) a full no-trade clause. If he struggles, the Marlins will have to eat his salary, either wasting a rotation spot on him (unlikely) or demoting him to long relief work (more likely).

Vazquez will be inserted into the middle of the rotation, joining returning starters Johnson, Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, and Chris Volstad. Of the starting five, Volstad is the biggest question mark. His groundball percentage has declined in each of the past two seasons (from 53.4% in 2008 to 49.5% to 47.9%). Considering his status as a contact pitcher (career K/9: 5.62, lowest in the rotation), this is troublesome.

The bullpen will likely be a source of fan stress again in 2011 (though really, when isn't a bullpen stress inducing?). Leo Nunez returns as closer, with Clay Hensley setting him up. The only other returner is Brian Sanches.

To their credit, the Marlins made relief pitching a priority this offseason, acquiring Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb for Cameron Maybin and Randy Choate via free agency. All three figure to should win a spot in the bullpen barring a bad spring. Dustin Richardson, acquired from Boston for Andrew Miller, could also grab a bullpen spot. Burke Badenhop, ever the stalwart, could get the long relief/spot starter role out of Spring Training. [Update: Ted informs me I forgot about Mike Dunn. I suspect I'm not the first person to do so. But hey, a guy who walked 17 in 19.0 innings last year, can't be all bad, right?]

Will the bullpen improve? I have no idea. I try to think about the bullpen as little as possible, and as a result I have become much more content.

Useless Opening Day Lineup Projections!
Starting Rotation:

1. Josh Johnson
2. Ricky Nolasco
3. Javier Vazquez
4. Anibal Sanchez
5. Chris Volstad (LHP)

Bullpen:

• Leo Nunez (closer)
• Clay Hensley (setup)
• Randy Choate (LHP - LOOGY)
• Ryan Webb
• Burke Badenhop (long relief, spot starter)
• Edward Mujica
• Brian Sanches (7th inning?)

*FIP is basically ERA with fielding and park factors stripped out.

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Josh Johnson: Still A Beast

Last night, the Tall, Dark and Mormon one, won a game all on his own. He chipped in with his usual dominance on the mound allowing just two runs in seven and two-thirds innings pitched, while striking out eight¹. He also provided the offense for the evening with a huge three run shot to straightaway center field. The bullpen almost tried to blow it again, amazingly. Dan Meyer allowed a home run to Prince Fielder to cut the deficit to 4-3. Then Matt Lindstrom let the leadoff man reach in the 9th before notching the save.

He now has achieved ten quality starts in his twelve outings. Remarkably the team has only delivered him five victories². With a 2.63 ERA and averaging right around seven innings per start, he deserves a better record. Baseball Prospectus took a look at some of his gems that have been wasted, namely, the eight shutout innings against the Phillies in April. Another strong performance not mentioned in the piece was a May date with the Reds. He went seven and a third innings and allowed just two runs, but the Marlin's offense could only match those two before finally winning 3-2 in the 14th inning³. Realistically Johnson could be 7-1 or 8-1 and dare I say, a contender to start the All-Star Game? Who knows, but if he keeps it up, he will definitely make it to St. Louis in July.

¹ Including three of Mike Cameron's four punchouts on the night
² The team is 9-3 in games started by Johnson
³ I realize the article is focusing on the bullpen blowing leads and in this game, the no decision was due to poor run support, as JJ was not in line to win when he exited the game. I think it deserves mention though as a game he should have won.

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Starting Pitching, Errors, and the Solo Homer

This will be a series throughout the season profiling the identity of last year's team and determining whether the offseason changes in roster and philosophy result in actual differences in these areas. We expect to update after every couple of series, about once a week on average.

Starting Pitching

	G	QS	W	L	ERA
Since Last	3	0	3	0	3.06
Season	3	0	3	0	3.06

Errors

	G	E	URA
Since Last	3	2	2
Season	3	2	2

Home Runs

	G	HR	TR	R%
Since Last	3	5*	11*	42.3%
Season	4	5*	11*	42.3%

*I did not include Emilio Bonifacio's inside the park home run and the runs resulting from it because, despite its awesomeness quotient, it was about speed and not power, which is what we are trying to convey here.

Overall Assessment

The starting pitching has done it's job, which has been made easier by being supplied early big leads in the first two games. It's also a little strange that a 3-0 record and 3.06 ERA by the starters has actually come without the benefit of a single quality start. Both JJ and Volstad were on their way but exited before completing the 6th inning (I'm still perplexed why Volstad came out so early). Nolasco also had a chance in his six innings before allowing the three-run bomb to Adam Dunn.

The Marlins were remarkably error-free through two games thanks to a late scoring change, but they certaintly did their part in the third game. Cody Ross' mental blunder cost the team one unearned run and two total runs in the 1st. And Dan Uggla's mistake in the 9th set the stage for a blown lead before being bailed out by late inning defensive replacement Brett Carroll (I bet managers love when those guys come through).

While the offense did look a lot more small-ball oriented, it was still helped much by the big ball. Early homers gave the club leads in two games and Hanley's big grand slam in the opener put that game beyond reach.

INDEX

QS: Quality start, a pitcher who goes 6+ innings and allows 3 or fewer runs
URA: Unearned runs allowed
TR: Total runs resulting from home runs
R%: Percentage of the team's runs that came via a home run

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Rotation Set

Looks like Ted was right, Andrew Miller will start the season in the bullpen. The team named Anibal Sanchez the fourth starter, and Miller will join the rotation as the fifth starter on April 15. It seems like a sensible move to me, as Miller is still working on his motion so as to not throw across his body. Some extra time in the pen and some long relief duty in garbage time will give him an extra few weeks to iron out the kinks. Miller could become an ace, so there's no rush in getting him two extra starts in 2009.

Meanwhile, the Marlins picked up RHP Hayden Penn from the Orioles in exchange for Robert Andino in a rather unsurprising exchange of players out of options with no spots on their former teams. Hopefully Andino will find room to grow in the Orioles organization. As for Penn, he hasn't shown much promise in scant major league action, but in my mind, relievers are mostly a crapshoot: sometimes they put it together for long stretches, and sometimes they're Jorge Julio. Since the Fish would have been forced to release Andino, at least they got something in return.

The Fish also traded popular Player to be Named to Kansas City for first-baseman Ross Gload. Gload is being penciled in as Jorge Cantu's backup at first, which I am interpreting as disappointment in Gaby Sanchez. He had the first-base job all but locked up in the spring, but will open the season in Triple-A New Orleans. Surely, we will see him again by September (and maybe sooner), but in the meantime, the Marlins needed someone whose primary position was first base (with Wes Helms and Jorge Cantu being natural third-basemen).

So with Opening Day fast approaching, the roster appears all but set, with the injury status of Alfredo Amezega being the major remaining question.

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Projecting the Opening Day Roster: Pitchers

Starting Rotation

Ricky Nolasco
Josh Johnson
Chris Volstad
Anibal Sanchez
Andrew Miller

This just about set in stone. The only question that remains is whether it will be Sanchez or Miller that is deemed the fifth starter and will open the season in the minors for some extra work before joining the club on April 18th. It was looking like Miller, but yesterday he threw six innings without allowing an earned run and has looked better each time he goes out. Sanchez has been no slouch, but maybe the team wants a lefty to begin the season. Who knows?

Bullpen

Locks
Matt Lindstrom
Leo Nunez
Renyel Pinto
Logan Kensing

Others
Rick VandenHurk
Kiko Calero
Carlos Martinez
Dan Meyer
John Koronko
Scott Proctor (DL)

The normal bullpen would have seven spots, but it could be eight to start the season if Fredi Gonzalez decides he wants to use the roster spot vacated by the fifth starter to be an extra bullpen arm. I think that is what will happen since the bullpen is the biggest remaining position battle and early in the season the starters might be on pitch counts so the bullpen needs to be deep. If that's the case then the decision would seem simple. Proctor will be on the disabled list and one of the two lefties (Meyer or Koronka) would be sent to the minors or released. If we go with the conventonal seven to begin with, the last cut would be one of the following three, Martinez, Calero, VandenHurk. I have no clue which guy would go. Martinez and Calero have been good and VandenHurk is kind of an unknown because of his time with the WBC. If Lindstrom starts the season on the DL, which is still a possibility, then this last cut would be unnecessary.

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