Bye Andrew

Last night the Marlins traded LHP Andrew Miller to the Red Sox for LHP Dustin Richardson. Here are his career numbers, he's probably not a diamond in the rough. He strikes out hitters at a good clip but also walks a lot of batters. It looks like the Marlins are hoping he can be a situational lefty out of the bullpen next year, though that is just a guess on my part.Red Sox blog Over the Monster wrote of Richardson, "Richardson wasn't likely to crack the bullpen out of spring training, and probably didn't have much beyond a middle/long relief ceiling." Of course, we would take any effective bullpen arm we can get, so if this gamble pays off, all the better it only cost the Marlins Miller.

We would not even be mentioning this trade were it not for the fact that the Marlins acquired Miller in the Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis trade with the Tigers in the winter of 2007. Miller never lived up to the hype surrounding him as a first-round pick out of UNC, posting a career ERA of 5.84 thus far and spending most of 2010 in the minors. Truthfully, it looks like the Marlins gave up on Miller about a year after Marlins fans did. That's the breaks with high profile prospects, though. Sometimes Harold Baines yields Sammy Sosa, other times Jay Buhner yields Ken Phelps.

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End of Season Awards

The offseason is upon us, so let's hand out some awards and superlatives. On with the memories with some awards I made up...


Dontrelle Willis Out of Nowhere Award, given to the player who was completely off the radar in Spring Training that made a big impact on the team: Chris Coghlan. Who knew Coghlan, who had never played a game in left field until the night before he was promoted to the big club, would flourish in the position? Coghlan wasn't even on my radar before the season, but what he lacked in buzz he made up for with performance, solidifying the leadoff spot and getting some Rookie of the Year consideration along the way.

Jorge Julio Award, given to the new addition to team who completely flopped: Emilio Bonifacio. Things went downhill quickly for Bonifacio after his inside-the-park home run on opening day, as he posted a .309 on base percentage this year, eighth-worst among NL qualifiers.

Darren Daulton Deadline Dandy, given to the best midseason acquisition: Nick Johnson. Johnson was the perfect hitter to place between Coghlan and Hanley Ramirez, when he was healthy. Hey, it's not like Luis Ayala was getting this award.

Next Member of the Marlins Diaspora, self explanatory: Dan Uggla. Congratulations on another great year with the bat. Unfortunately, you have priced yourself out of the Marlins' 2010 payroll. And when Emilio Bonifacio replaces you, hits .215, and costs the Marlins their season, Jeff Loria will blame Fredi Gonzalez and fire his ass. Way to go, Dan.

Bret Barberie Bizarre Boo-Boo: given to the player with the weirdest injury of the season, named after the time former Marlin Bret Barberie missed a game due to a case of habanero juice in the eye: Jorge Cantu. Everyone's favorite sassy senior had to leave the Marlins' June 10 game against St. Louis with a bout of the dizzies. The problem was caused by his cholesterol medication. Cantu is 27 years old, which may make him the youngest person in America to take cholesterol medication...


On with some other, more generic awards...


MVP: Hanley Ramirez. No explanation necessary.

Best Pitcher: Josh Johnson. The only pitcher you could count on to give a quality start.

Biggest Surprise: Chris Coghlan. In a deep farm system, Coghlan was not the first player you would have expected to make an impact for the Marlins, but he did.

Biggest Disappointment: Four-way tie for Ricky Nolasco, Chris Volstad, Anibal Sanchez, and Andrew Miller. Before the season, Ted said "The top three of the rotation [with Johnson] has a chance to be great... they don't need to be all stars now, just decent." I said "None of the Marlins' pitchers will get any Cy Young consideration, but not because they didn't deserve it." Josh Johnson held up his end of the deal. The rest, not so much.

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Meet the September Callups

Welcome back, now can we please keep Emilio Bonifacio out of the outfield?

Last night, the Marlins recalled Cameron Maybin from Triple-A New Orleans and DFA'd Luis Ayala (so much for that experiment). By making the move before September 1, the Marlins can add Maybin to the postseason roster if they make the playoffs (which is technically still possible). Today begins the first round of September callups, who are listed below. I'll update this post with names and commentary as more callups are announced.

The First Wave
Burke Badenhop, P
Rick VandenHurk, P
Brett Hayes, C

We already know plenty about Badenhop and Henricus, as they have both spent some time with the big club this year. Since the Marlins missed out on the Brad Penny derby, VandenHurk will likely get a start on Wednesday against Atlanta. With Volstad being sent down to the minors and the rest of the staff struggling, one would hope these two could contribute some quality starts and/or effective long relief if needed, but that may be asking too much (there's a reason they weren't on the 25-man roster...). Hayes seems merely a seat-filler at this point, he may get a start here and there to give Paulino and Baker a rest, but both seem well-rested due to their platoon situation.

More Callups
Andy Gonzalez, SS
Andrew Miller, LHP
Chris Volstad, RHP
Gaby Sanchez, 1B

Gonzalez becomes the de facto backup shortstop, since the only other option is Emilio Bonifacio. The Marlins recalled Miller from Triple-A. He will probably be used in long relief situations, though he could get a spot start in an emergency. Volstad will probably be used the same way. As for Sanchez, it's probably the bench for him.

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Reasons For Optimism

I would consider myself an optimist, but I won't lie. It is very hard to feel optimistic about the Florida Marlins these days. About a month ago, they finished off an 11-1 opening two weeks of the season and they were the talk of the league. Since then? Eight wins, twenty-two losses. Thirty games, spanning thirty-two days, and the club played .267% ball. Wow. Add on to that the misery of the two latest defeats, when the team had a great chance to secure a big pick-me-up, only to falter late, again. But, instead of piling on or waxing poetic about this miserable stretch, I will briefly note things that we should be optimistic about.

• In Andrew Miller's two starts since returning from the disabled list, he's totaled 12 IP, 4 ER, 13 K's, and a 3.00 ERA. If he can keep it up, that will be a huge boost to the rotation. Josh Johnson and Chris Volstad are pitching well and adding a third player who can deliver quality starts gives the team a much better chance to succeed. It also helps to have a good lefty to throw against the Mets and Phillies and their lineups filled with left handed and switch hitters.
• Since Cameron Maybin was sent down to AAA, he has done well, hitting .357% in eight games played. Joe Frisaro explains he could be called back up as soon as today. Whether or not that happens, he should be back sooner rather than later, hopefully with renewed confidence. (Personal thought, when he comes back, he should be inserted into the leadoff spot. He will see better pitches and should ve focusing on getting on base. The eight spot can really ruin you mentally, although I do suggest throwing Bonifacio down there and seeing what that does.)
• The law of averages suggests that guys like Dan Uggla will get hot. He is not a .200% hitter. Even in his worst season of 2007 he posted a .245%. Pretty soon he will get hot and start spraying the ball around and out of the yard. The average and production will climb.

Okay, that's about all I got. Bottom line, this team just needs to win. It needs to find a way. Winning this series against the Rays would be a good start.

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Off Day Items

The Marlins are off today, but there are a few things worth mentioning.

Cameron Maybin was optioned to Triple-A New Orleans after yesterday's ballgame. I suppose it's the right move as he is struggling and should not be in the lineup now. He's also the kind of player that isn't suited for a reserve role. He needs to get at-bats and work things out, and now he can do that without being a drag on the everyday lineup. He got off to a slow start at Double-A last year before turning it around and having a great September at the major-league level. Hopefully history repeats itself and he can join the club in July or August and provide a similar impact.

Taking Maybin's spot on the roster is pitcher John Corona Koronka, who has been called up from New Orleans to make Tuesday's start. This move was a bit curious, as it seemed like the bullpen arms of Dan Meyer, Burke Badenhop, or Hayden Penn could have made this start without necessitating a roster move. But, the team will need a fifth starter soon and if Koronka was the guy for that, then this was the time to do it (based on his pitching schedule). The team might have also specifically wanted a lefty and did not want to jeopardize another prospect (Sean West) by throwing him into the fire too soon. In Koronka's last three starts in New Orleans he has gone 16 innings and allowed just 3 ER.

Andrew Miller made a rehab start last week at Single-A Jupiter. Miller went four innings, giving up one run on four hits with three Ks and one walk. He is scheduled to pitch for Double-A Jacksonville tonight, whereupon he could return to the rotation. The Fish will need Miller to put up some quality starts while Anibal Sanchez is on the DL.

When the Marlins return to Miami on Friday, they will officially open a 3-game series with the Dodgers at Land Shark Stadium. Naming rights to the former Dolphin Stadium were sold to Anhueser-Busch, who owns the beer. Land Shark is marketed as a part of Jimmy Buffett's Margaritaville brand, which means fans will likely hear more Buffett songs at the stadium (not necessarily a good thing). Also, Marlins fans will probably get a break from hearing tired jokes about the Marlins player-development model, as everyone else will probably make fun of the Jimmy Buffett connection (for good reason). Dave thinks Dolphins owner Stephen Ross (who also owns the stadium) should have named the stadium Hurricane Reef Stadium, since Hurricane Reef is a superior beer with South Florida roots.

It's the 13th anniversary of the Marlins first no-hitter, thrown by Al Leiter. On May 11th, 1996 he shut down the Rockies, striking out 6 while only walking 2 and hitting Ellis Burks with a pitch. Al also got two double plays from the defense. The Marlins won 11-0, helped by home runs from Charles Johnson and Terry Pendleton. Cheers to Al.


Image via BaseballReference.org

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Your 2009 Verducci Effect Watch List

Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci released his annual list of pitchers susceptible to the Verducci Effect (he still humbly calls it the Year After Effect, but I'm not afraid to give the man his due). As expected, no Marlins made the list this year, but four other NL East pitchers made the list, including the previously mentioned Cole Hamels, along with the Mets' Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese, as well as the Braves' Jair Jurrjens. Also making the list were two of the game's premier young arms, Tim Lincecum and Jon Lester.

Should any of these guys, their teams, or their fans be worried? I'll let Verducci take this one:

Over the previous three years I red-flagged a total of 24 young pitchers at the start of those seasons. Of those 24 at-risk pitchers, 16 were hurt in that same season. Only one of the 24 pitchers managed to stay healthy and lower his ERA: Ubaldo Jimenez of Colorado, a guy I said would be less at risk because of his powerful body type.

Yikes.

You've been warned.

Though I do not root for opposing players to get injured (we're trying to have a civilization, here, people), my inner reptilian brain cannot help but be pleased with Verducci's findings. With that in mind, I'm already worried about Chris Volstad, Andrew Miller, and Josh Johnson's inclusion on the 2010 Verducci Effect List.

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2009 Macropreview

We'll be making our own predictions for 2009 soon, but here is a sample of what everyone else is predicting for the Marlins in 2009.

Will the Marlins have reason to celebrate in 2009?

We compiled as much as we could find on the web, and consolidated it into one spreadsheet available here. We tried to use some discretion - no two baseball blogs are created equal, but our selection may seem arbitrary to some readers. If you find something interesting that we missed, leave a comment and we may add it to the spreadsheet.

Average Record:

Average Finish: Fourth in NL East. Baseball Prospectus pegged the Fish at last in the division with three different methodologies, all using predictive statistics. Might that be an over-reliance on past performance, considering many of the Marlins (especially the rotation) have tiny sample sizes from which to work? Even so, with the Mets and Phillies appearing loaded, it is not surprising that no one likes the Fish to win the division, but then again, the team has a history of sneaking up on people when they least expect it...

Miscellany: Jeff Pearlman thinks the Fish will grab the NL Cy and ROY (by Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin), but he dubs his predictions "Guaranteed to be 100% (not) accurate." ... On SI.com's MLB Preview, John Heyman, Ted Keith, Joe Posnanski, Albert Chen, Lee Jenkins, Melissa Segura, and Jonah Freedman pick Maybin for ROY, while Genarro Filice picks Hanley Ramirez to win NL MVP. Ben Reiter and Jenkins picked the Fish as the sleeper team of 2009 ... The Warner Report also thinks Hanley will get the MVP ... Over at Dugout Central, Thomas Wayne listed the Marlins as the fifth best team in baseball, but still thinks the Phillies are the team to beat in the NL East ... Walkoff Walk is cautious on the Marlins' young talent, but nonetheless picked Cameron Maybin to win ROY ... On ESPN, Matthew Berry and Chris Singleton have the Marlins as this year's dark horse, Maybin was the ROY pick of Jorge Arangure Jr., Eric Karabell, Nate Ravitz, Brendan Roberts, Enrique Rojas, Singleton, Jayson Stark, and Jason Grey, Peter Gammons has Josh Johnson winning the Cy, and Karabell and Rojas have Hanley for MVP. Only Singleton has the Marlins in the playoffs, winning the Wild Card.


We'll be making our own predictions later today, so stay tuned...

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Rotation Set

Looks like Ted was right, Andrew Miller will start the season in the bullpen. The team named Anibal Sanchez the fourth starter, and Miller will join the rotation as the fifth starter on April 15. It seems like a sensible move to me, as Miller is still working on his motion so as to not throw across his body. Some extra time in the pen and some long relief duty in garbage time will give him an extra few weeks to iron out the kinks. Miller could become an ace, so there's no rush in getting him two extra starts in 2009.

Meanwhile, the Marlins picked up RHP Hayden Penn from the Orioles in exchange for Robert Andino in a rather unsurprising exchange of players out of options with no spots on their former teams. Hopefully Andino will find room to grow in the Orioles organization. As for Penn, he hasn't shown much promise in scant major league action, but in my mind, relievers are mostly a crapshoot: sometimes they put it together for long stretches, and sometimes they're Jorge Julio. Since the Fish would have been forced to release Andino, at least they got something in return.

The Fish also traded popular Player to be Named to Kansas City for first-baseman Ross Gload. Gload is being penciled in as Jorge Cantu's backup at first, which I am interpreting as disappointment in Gaby Sanchez. He had the first-base job all but locked up in the spring, but will open the season in Triple-A New Orleans. Surely, we will see him again by September (and maybe sooner), but in the meantime, the Marlins needed someone whose primary position was first base (with Wes Helms and Jorge Cantu being natural third-basemen).

So with Opening Day fast approaching, the roster appears all but set, with the injury status of Alfredo Amezega being the major remaining question.

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Living Up To The Billing

When we were creating this blog and thinking of potential names and tag-lines for it, one of the tag-lines I coined was "Pitching, no defense, and the solo homer," of course a parody of the famous Earl Weaver winning baseball philosophy. I don't even mean it as a joke, it does accurately depict what the Marlins have been about since the beginning of last year. If spring training is any indication (it's not) then the first third of that philosophy is down pat. Below are updates on three of the projected starters.

Ricky Nolasco had a good performance that most will not know of because it came in a simulated game on one of the back fields of the Jupiter complex. He reportedly threw very well and felt great throwing between 80-85 pitches and allowing just a few hits in six innings of work.

Josh Johnson went five strong innings on Wednesday allowing just one run while mowing down seven Nationals hitters. He also got a base hit off friend and ex-teammate Scott Olsen, which I'm sure he's more happy about.

Chris Volstad followed on Thursday with four scoreless innings against the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies. He allowed just one baserunner, a single by Geoff Jenkins if I recall correctly, and struck out three.

Trying not to fumble the baton will be Andrew Miller, who will start today's game against the Atlanta Braves. As I wrote earlier, he could use a solid outing.

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Spring Training Update

Three Up

Highly touted and bearing huge expectations, Cameron Maybin has had a solid spring and erased any doubts that he would be the opening day centerfielder and perhaps the leadoff hitter. He is 12 for 33 with one homer and looks every bit the rookie of the year candidate many believe he will be. He needs to be the new table setter of the lineup with Hanley Ramirez moving to the three-hole. Expect a lot of singles and methodically advancing along the base paths.

The aptly described, "tall, dark and Mormon," Josh Johnson has gone a total of eleven innings in his three appearances and has yielded just one run while striking out seven. He is certainly in the battle for the title of opening day starter ace. He had a solid early return from the Tommy John surgery last summer and was remarkably consistent. Consistency is usually something lacking in young pitchers and a young staff. Hopefully he can provide that and be the stopper at the top of the rotation.

Catcher John Baker has had a stellar 9-20 start at the plate with three walks giving him a .522 OBP. Nice for a guy who was our number two hitter in the lineup towards the end of last year and might find himself there again this year. He fits right in line with the front office's new philosophy at the plate (fewer K's and HR's, better BA and OBP). While he obviously doesn't have the prototypical speed for the two spot, he may be our best option to sandwich between Cameron Maybin and Hanley Ramirez.

Honarable Mention: Burke Badenhop has not allowed a run in seven innings spread across four appearances.

Three Down

Andrew Miller has had a couple rough outings. In his opener he allowed six runs in one and a third inning. He has improved each outing and says he feels he is getting more command but the season is just weeks away and we need him as the lefty in our staff. The team will probably go with a four man rotation the first couple weeks of the season, so Miller might need to be the guy who gets a couple more rehab starts in the minors.

Another player bearing some expectations this spring is Gaby Sanchez. Unfortunately, a first base job that looked like his to win is now the one he is losing. He is just 4 for 25 with six strikeouts at the plate and has made three errors in the field. I think this will be an intriguing decision to see if he makes the club. He proved he was too good for AA, and the Pacific Coast League (AAA) won't provide a tougher test (PCL is a hitting league, not pitching) if he goes there. He could start out as a bench player, but it would be a tough adjustment to getting just a several at-bats per week.

Taylor Tankersley has been given a large amount of opportunities to settle in as a lefty in the bullpen. This spring he isn't doing much to help his cause. He recently had an outing with six earned runs conceded and has only kept the scoreboard clean in two of his six appearances, all of which were an inning or less. He will always have an advantage making the club because he is a left-handed pitcher, but he may be out of options.

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