There Will Be No World Series TV Guide This Year

Last year's World Series participants, the Yankees and Phillies, had the decency to bow out to the Rangers and Giants respectively, sparing us Marlins fans the indignity of watching (or not) two hated teams in the World Series. In fact, this will be one of the first World Series to capture my full attention in a while. Both teams feature some former Marlin favorites, including Jorge Cantu, Edgar Renteria, and NLCS MVP Cody "Co-dy Co-dy" Ross. Throw in two bona fide aces (Cliff Lee of the Rangers and Tim Lincecum of the Giants), each team's tortured history (the Giants haven't won a World Series since the heyday of Willie Mays, while the Rangers had not won a playoff series until this year), and Certified Ninja Brian Wilson, and you've got yourself a Series.


UPDATE: Also, celebrity fans! Okay, Jesse Thorn is not actually a celebrity, but he beats George W. Bush.

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Adios, Jorge

Not exactly the destination Dave wished, but Jorge Cantu has been traded to the Texas Rangers. Not a surprise, if he had remained here until the end of the season, he would probably have been non-tendered (read: he wasn't playing here next year). By trading him now, the team gets a couple of prospects¹ to add to the minor league system.

Things Jorge Cantu Was Good For

• 1.8 WAR per 162 games. For novices, if we replaced Cantu with an average MLB-er, we would win two less games every season.
• Generally a clutch hitter, racked up a lot of RBIs, although MarlinManiac might refute that
  
• Allowed myself and others to tweet the clever and unoriginal "Hip hip, Jor-Ge!"

The Diehards wish Cantu the best, and as a bonus, we can root for his new team, as they are not in the NL or AL East.<sup>2

1</sup>RHPs Evan Reed and Omar Poveda are their names. A quick Google search tells me Reed recorded the most saves in the Rangers minor league system last year. Poveda is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery.

²The Orioles are the only team exempt from that rule.

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Week In Review

Overview: The Marlins dropped the opener of the season in New York but bounced back to win the final two. That pattern repeated itself in back in Miami against the Dodgers, giving the Fish two series wins and a nice 4-2 opening week.

Positives: Jorge Cantu is red hot to start the year. He has a hit and an RBI in all six games, including the game-winning sacrifice fly on Saturday and a 5-RBI game this afternoon. The rest of the team is also hitting pretty well. Ronnie Paulino had a couple key hits late in games, Hanley Ramirez is his usual self, and Gaby Sanchez has been a pleasant surprise hitting eighth in the lineup.

Negatives: The bullpen. Well, they had a pretty rough week. With the exception of Burke Badenhop's stellar long relief in two outings and saves by Tim Wood and Leo Nunez, they have been horrific. The starting pitching also could be a bit better. Josh Johnson hasn't been his usual dominant self, and the rest of the staff should be pitching deeper into ballgames.

My main negative of the week though is the absence of the Teal Tower and out of town scoreboard in left field. If you haven't heard/seen, it's been replaced by huge advertising signs because the scoreboard was in need of repair which was deemed too pricey. I could go on a 500+ word rant here, but since it's a week in review, I'll refrain and simply say booooooooo. Not cool.

Highlight of the Week: The Marlins treated the home fans on Saturday to the first walk-off win of the year. Ronnie Paulino tied the game with a double to deep center (would have been a walk-off bomb in most parks). And as mentioned earlier, Jorge Cantu won it with a sac-fly.

Line of the Week: Not to beat a dead horse, but a huge week for Cantu, his totals: 8-25, 4 2B, 2 HR, 10 RBI

Looking Ahead: The Marlins have a tough week starting with a four-game set at home with the Cincinnati Reds. The weekend brings the year's first trip to Philadelphia for a traditional three-game series with the Phillies.

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End of Season Awards

The offseason is upon us, so let's hand out some awards and superlatives. On with the memories with some awards I made up...


Dontrelle Willis Out of Nowhere Award, given to the player who was completely off the radar in Spring Training that made a big impact on the team: Chris Coghlan. Who knew Coghlan, who had never played a game in left field until the night before he was promoted to the big club, would flourish in the position? Coghlan wasn't even on my radar before the season, but what he lacked in buzz he made up for with performance, solidifying the leadoff spot and getting some Rookie of the Year consideration along the way.

Jorge Julio Award, given to the new addition to team who completely flopped: Emilio Bonifacio. Things went downhill quickly for Bonifacio after his inside-the-park home run on opening day, as he posted a .309 on base percentage this year, eighth-worst among NL qualifiers.

Darren Daulton Deadline Dandy, given to the best midseason acquisition: Nick Johnson. Johnson was the perfect hitter to place between Coghlan and Hanley Ramirez, when he was healthy. Hey, it's not like Luis Ayala was getting this award.

Next Member of the Marlins Diaspora, self explanatory: Dan Uggla. Congratulations on another great year with the bat. Unfortunately, you have priced yourself out of the Marlins' 2010 payroll. And when Emilio Bonifacio replaces you, hits .215, and costs the Marlins their season, Jeff Loria will blame Fredi Gonzalez and fire his ass. Way to go, Dan.

Bret Barberie Bizarre Boo-Boo: given to the player with the weirdest injury of the season, named after the time former Marlin Bret Barberie missed a game due to a case of habanero juice in the eye: Jorge Cantu. Everyone's favorite sassy senior had to leave the Marlins' June 10 game against St. Louis with a bout of the dizzies. The problem was caused by his cholesterol medication. Cantu is 27 years old, which may make him the youngest person in America to take cholesterol medication...


On with some other, more generic awards...


MVP: Hanley Ramirez. No explanation necessary.

Best Pitcher: Josh Johnson. The only pitcher you could count on to give a quality start.

Biggest Surprise: Chris Coghlan. In a deep farm system, Coghlan was not the first player you would have expected to make an impact for the Marlins, but he did.

Biggest Disappointment: Four-way tie for Ricky Nolasco, Chris Volstad, Anibal Sanchez, and Andrew Miller. Before the season, Ted said "The top three of the rotation [with Johnson] has a chance to be great... they don't need to be all stars now, just decent." I said "None of the Marlins' pitchers will get any Cy Young consideration, but not because they didn't deserve it." Josh Johnson held up his end of the deal. The rest, not so much.

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Trade Deadline

The Marlins have traded minor-leaguer Aaron Thompson to the Nationals for Nick Johnson.

The deal seems really good for the Marlins. Jorge Cantu will likely displace Bonifacio at third, while Johnson moves into first base and the two-hole in the lineup. The Nats will be paying most of Johnson's remaining salary, and all the Marlins had to give up was a former first-rounder who couldn't get noticed in the minors behind Josh Johnson, Andrew Miller, Chris Volstad et al., and struggled this year in Double-A ball. Suckers. Welcome to the team, Nick. Don't fuck this up for us.

No one had Aaron in this year's Trade Pool, and it looks like there will be no winner this year, unless something else hits the news late. So no one is getting a free 12-pack from me this year. That's too bad for everyone else, but I'll be celebrating later with some Bell's Oberon.

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Madness

As it appears that the Marlins might make a trade to replace Emilio Bonifacio, let's examine just how stupid it is to have B-Face in the everyday lineup while the team is fighting for a Wild Card spot.

1. Bonifacio's Win Probability Added (WPA, for an explanation, go here) is at -1.94, third worst among everyday players. He is much worse than the average replacement player.
2. Bonfacio is batting .248 with a .293 OBP, and he is batting second, where he is supposed to simply get on base. He has drawn just 26 walks in 438 plate appearances while striking out 85 times.

Bonifacio is not the first infielder to get plenty of playing time while struggling at the plate. Alex Gonzalez did this for years at shortstop. Of course, Gonzalez was otherworldly on defense and would at least give you 15 home runs a year. I can't say the same for Emilio. Hopefully, the rumors of the Fish trading for Nick Johnson pan out. The trade would allow Jorge Cantu to move back to third base to make room for Johnson, whose .810 OPS (and 2.24 WPA) would be a drastic improvement over Bonifacio's .600. It is time for the Bonifacio experiment to end, and I hope it happens today.

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Just a touch of the dizzies...

Ladies and gentleman, the starting first baseman for your Florida Marlins:

Context.

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Oh the Possibilities...

Yesterday, David detailed the early struggles of Emilio Bonifacio and Cameron Maybin. This morning he left a comment that linked a Joe Frisaro blog post about Chris Coghlan. I thought it might be good to expand on all the possibilites that the Marlins could do, if guys like Bonifacio and Maybin continue to struggle. For now, I will focus on Bonifacio and the 3B job.

David mentioned that Alfredo Amezaga could be a candidate. On first thought, he seems like a perfect replacement. He is very similar to Emilio and can hit leadoff. It would be a simple move that would seeminlgy require no additional moves in the batting order or in the field. But, like David and many others have said, Amezaga has never really shown to be a great everyday player. He has always been best used as a reserve and getting a couple starts a week.

Now to Chris Coghlan. I love this guy. I hadn't seen much of him until this spring training, but was always impressed with his numbers and always heard he's a pretty good defensive player. Problem is, he plays 2B and Dan Uggla is blocking him at the major league level. Frisaro reports he has played some 3B in the minors but if he were to come up, I'd still say it's a tough position change and you never know what kind of results you will get. He could slide into the leadoff spot if necessary, but since he is regarded as one of our better positional prospects, I'd guess they wouldn't throw him to the fire like that.

Another interesting scenario could be moving Jorge Cantu back to 3B. This would open up 1B where remember Gaby Sanchez was the favorite to start during Spring Training. He had a bad spring that included an injury, but he is doing very well in AAA and it might warrant him finally getting his opportunity. The downside to this move could be two-fold. One, the defense would suffer, as Cantu has been better at 1B and Sanchez isn't the greatest of defenders. Two, we would be replacing a leadoff hitter with a middle/bottom of the lineup guy and we'd have to juggle the lineup and perhaps use a nontraditional leadoff hitter (Hermida?).

Now to a complex scenario, bare with me. I've had a sneaking suspicion since the offseason that Dan Uggla will not be on the team in 2010 (translation: traded during this coming offseason, or before the trade deadline during the season). I could explain my reasoning, but I'll leave that for another day. If Uggla were to be traded, say for relief pitching help, his 2B spot could be filled simply by placing Chris Coghlan there. Or, if you like a crazy musical chairs infield, Bonifacio could move back to his natural position (2B) and then you could fill 3B in any of the options already talked about. It'd be very bold, but this organization has shown they don't mind doing the unorthodox, plus it would seem to fit into their philosophy of better defense and on-base percentage, less errors and strikeouts at the plate. Problem is though, Uggla has to be tradeable, and his sub .200% batting average makes him a difficult sell. He needs to get hot and boost his numbers before teams will be offering deals.

There are a lot of options. I do believe Beinfest when he says they are preaching patience, but one must wonder if the team is in real contention in June and July whether patience will be abandoned for a gamble on different young players. We saw first hand how great it can work in 2003.

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I am Powerful

I'm a little late to mention this, but Jorge Cantu was named NL Player of the Week on Monday. Both he and Josh Johnson have had this award bestowed upon them this season. What else do the two have in common? Both have been honored with crappy Marlins Die-Hards Photoshops (Johnson, Cantu). You know what this means: I need to make a crappy Photoshop image for every player on the team. Leave your ideas in the comments.

While we're at it, here is This Week in Schadenfreude, courtesy of Jonah Keri:

In a nutshell: With the game on the line, Mets Manager Jerry Manuel decided he didn’t want Ramon Castro (a pretty good hitter and easily the Mets’ best option at the time given their multiple injuries) to bat. Instead, Manuel decided to go with Omir Santos, a lifelong bush leaguer with a career 651(!) minor league OPS. Santos had a few days earlier hit a grand slam, you see. Also, according to a few plugged-in writers in New York, Manuel hates Castro and wanted to undermine/humiliate him to the point where he’d demand to be traded or released. So whether the reason was ignoring years and years of blatantly obvious statistical evidence, fixating on a personal grudge at the expense of his team, or the BS excuse Manuel actually used (Santos has “a shorter swing” so he’d fare better against Marlins hard-throwing closer Matt Lindstrom), Manuel went to Santos in the big spot.

But that wasn’t even the end of it. To get Santos up to the plate, Manuel had to summon him…FROM THE BULLPEN. WHERE HE WAS IN FULL CATCHER’S GEAR, WARMING UP A PITCHER. The switch took roughly an hour and a half, or about as long as it would take the Mets to summon a fan from the top row of the upper deck, train him for a decade to learn how to hit big league pitching, sign him to a contract, then put him up at the plate. There was a 0% chance that Santos was going to come through in this situation. The Mets did the Marlins a gigantic favor. HUGE.

Go here to read Jonah's IM conversation with his blogger buddy Rob about the managing prowess of Jerry Manuel.


Image via UPI

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The Honeymoon is Over

With a full month of play finished, I think it's time we took a look at the everyday lineup and identified a few of the weak links. Though Dan Uggla is off to a somewhat slow start, batting .202 and OPSing .696 (OPS+ 82), the two weakest spots in the order are Cameron Maybin and Emilio Bonifacio. Their lines so far this season:

	AB		R	H	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
Bonifacio	112		17	30	6	7	28	.268	.311	.330	.641	69
Maybin	77		9	16	3	7	29	.208	.282	.325	.607	59

Maybin's numbers are worse, but considering his spot in the order (usually eighth) and the fact that he is a franchise player, I am comfortable with keeping him in the everyday lineup a bit longer and letting him adjust to major league pitching (he had less than 100 career PAs heading into this season).

Bonifacio's situation is more interesting. As much as I would not like to let Ken Rosenthal win this argument, a .311 OBP is simply unacceptable in the leadoff spot. Combined with his 28 strikeouts, Bonifacio's production has been abysmal. Simply put, if he stays in the leadoff spot and continues at his current pace, Hanley Ramirez will not have enough RBI opportunities.

Joe Frisaro reported today that Larry Beinfest is preaching patience with Maybin and Bonifacio:

In the eyes of the organization, both have terrific upside, and that's why the team is patient.

"With the young guys, they all have different time tables," Beinfest said. "It's all about making the adjustments, learning the pitchers, those types of things. It happens differently for different guys.

"It's hard to say this guy has this many at-bats, and we know for sure about him. It's not just that. You have to look at the mental aspect of the player. Is he up or down? Is he handling it? Is he making the adjustments."

Because both are handling the adversity, the team is sticking with them.

"Both of them. They're confident in their abilities, and they're working through," Beinfest said.

I have no problem with Beinfest giving a vote of confidence to the media (you certainly don't want him trashing his own players and giving them inferiority complexes). However, at some point, if either of these two does not improve their offensive production, the team must consider benching one or both of them. And they certainly have a lot of options on the table.

Alfredo Amezega is not an everyday player by any stretch, but he can play centerfield and third base, which allows him the opportunity to replace either Bonifacio or Maybin in the lineup. However, I think Maybin's numbers will pick up relatively soon as he adjusts to Major League pitching. With Bonifacio, the Marlins could move Jorge Cantu back to third base and promote either Gaby Sanchez or Logan Morrison to play first base. This has a couple of drawbacks: Cantu's defense is very suspect at third base, and if Morrison and Sanchez were sent to the minors after spring training, then it is clear the team does not think either are prepared to start yet. We shall see if the team's assessment of these two changes if Bonifacio continues to struggle.

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Week in Review

Overview: A three-game winning streak was sandwiched between a loss in New York and losing the final three to the Cubs to make it a 3-4 road trip. The Marlins now stand at 14-11 on the season.
Positives: The Fish found a way to win a couple tight ballgames by coming back in the 8th inning on getaway day in New York and the opener in Chicago. Jorge Cantu also continued his hot streak against the Mets before cooling down against the Cubs
Negatives: The team's starting pitchers have now gone a franchise record 16 games without recording a win. Too often we are behind very early in games and the hole only gets deeper. That stat is somewhat overshadowing the Marlins deficiencies at the plate though. In five out of seven games this week, the team scored four or fewer runs in nine innings.
Line of the week: Jorge Cantu, Tuesday night in New York

3-3, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1 BB

Highlight of the week: This week's award goes to Cody Ross, whose clutch RBI hit took the Marlins from behind to ahead in the rubber match of the Mets series. It was great redemption for him after being in a similar situation earlier in the game but not getting a run home.
Looking ahead: The Fish have a quick four game homestand with two games each against the Reds and Braves before a long flight to Colorado for a weekend series against the Rockies.

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Meet the Mets, Beat the Mets

The Fish just pulled out an impressive 4-3 victory to take the first Marlins-Mets series in Citi Field's young history. Matt Lindstrom finished off an Alfonseca Save¹ preserving the lead which was delivered by a Cody Ross 2-RBI single in the 8th. Jorge Cantu once again proved how valuable he is with another home run in the first and a couple great defensive plays to save runs and end innings. I've been hesitating to say this, but Jorge plays a nice first base. I guess the key is that he never has to overhand throw it to anybody. Anyways, nothing beats taking two out of three in New York, especially when David Wright never comes through in the clutch. Stay tuned tomorrow morning for the SPESH report.

¹An Alfonseca Save is defined as a pitcher entering a save situation and instantly making it drastically tougher on himself by walking and hitting batters and getting hit all around the yard. Somehow though, the save is eventually made.

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Return of Sassy Senior

Jorge Cantu will likely return to the Marlins this weekend after doctors found no major damage in his sore left wrist. This gives me an excuse to run this, featuring one of my favorite nicknames:


Marlins Die-Hards: utilizing subpar photoshop skills for a couple of weeks.

Go to Walkoff Walk for context/inspiration.

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Statistical Anomoly Alert!

Jorge Cantu reacts after striking out against Scott Olsen on Saturday (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

This week, ESPN.com's Jayson Stark informed us that the Marlins did something unprecedented:

On Sunday, they struck out 13 times against Johan Santana -- and beat him. In their next game Tuesday, they whiffed 12 times against Braves starter Javier Vazquez -- and beat him, too.

We combed through baseball-reference.com's fabulous Play Index and couldn't find any other team since 1954 that won back-to-back games in which it fanned that many times against the opposing starting pitcher. In fact, we found just three other teams that did that within the same week:

1967 Red Sox (Catfish Hunter 12 K Sept. 12, Mickey Lolich 13 K Sept. 19)
1977 Blue Jays (Dennis Leonard 12 K Aug. 14, Nolan Ryan 13 K Aug. 19)
1990 Phillies (David Cone 12 K Sept. 7, Sid Fernandez 12 K Sept. 14)

Everyone knows about the team's propensity for strikeouts, and now we know how historically significant their tendency to strike out is. And in the four games since facing Santana and Vasquez, the Marlins have continued the pattern:

• 4/15 vs. Atlanta: 11 strikeouts, won 10-4
  
• 4/16 vs. Atlanta: 10 strikeouts, won 6-2
  
• 4/17 vs. Washington: 11 strikeouts in 10 innings (all in the first 9 innings), won 3-2
  
• 4/18 vs. Washington: 11 strikeouts in 11 innings (8 in the first 9 innings), won 9-6.

So in six consecutive games, the Marlins have won while striking out at least ten times. I believe Tim Kurkjian mentioned this streak on Baseball Tonight the other day, but I could not find any video of the segment on ESPN.com, unfortunately. The streak got a big boost from Emilio Bonifacio, who has gone 3 for 25 during the streak with an astonishing 11 strikeouts during the streak (that sound you hear is Ken Rosenthal saying he told us so).

This streak does deserve an asterisk, though, as it took the Fish 10 innings to get their tenth strikeout this afternoon. Nonetheless, the streak is something that may never be replicated.


UPDATE: The Marlins won again on Sunday, but only struck out three times, ending the streak.

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Opening Day

The Marlins beat the Nationals 12-6, led by home runs from Jorge Cantu and Jeremy Hermida, a grand slam from Hanley, and an inside-the-park home run from Emilio Bonifacio. Bonifacio may have been the first man to hit an inside-the-parker for his first career home run on Opening Day. Nolasco pitched 6 innings, giving up 5 runs (4 earned) on 6 hits with 6 strikeouts. The Fish were in their usual form - lots of home runs with ok-enough pitching (though it is not recomended you extrapolate too much off of a win against the Nats). Usually when I watch the Marlins on tv (which is infrequent, given my living in Virginia), they lose. Today was a nice deviation from the norm.


Image via Miami Herald

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Jorge Cantu WBC Report

Mexico's run in the World Baseball Classic came to an end last night with a 7-4 defeat in an elimination game to Cuba. It wasn't much of a run actually. They finished just 2-4 in the tourney including, two mercy-rule defeats to Australia and Cuba in their home city in the first round. Jorge Cantu had a very respectable time at the plate though. He finished 9-25 with six RBI's and five runs scored. He also made a fantastic defensive play on a bunt in last night's game that made SportsCenter's top plays. More importantly he returns to the Marlins in full health (we think); the same can't be said for his fellow countryman Alfredo Amezaga.

On a side note, I was watching their ballgame against Korea on Sunday night and during his first plate appearance the announcers were explaining his offseason work. He trained with somebody Adam Dunn recommended for core strengthening. Cantu says it has allowed him to be more flexible and have quicker hips at the plate. Hopefully this pays off and he doesn't have a decrease in production, like he did after his last great year.

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