There's no '$' in Bullpen
Wednesday, July 4, 2012
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| Be warned. |
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| Be warned. |
"My left leg and my lower back are pretty sore," Maybin said. "It could have been a lot worse. Nothing broke. I was just in pain. I'll be all right. Just a lot of pain right now."Moral of the story: Don't mess with the Twitter bird.
@CamMaybin
UPDATE: Crap.
Rob Neyer on the Cody Ross waiver claim:
Anyway, the big winner here is the Marlins, who really should (finally) just let Maybin play. Maybin didn't hit much last year, and he's hit less than not much this year.Read more...
In the majors, that is. Maybin's still only 23 and he's triple-slashed .325/.401/.477 in 115 Triple-A games. Before that, he was nearly as good in 114 Double-A games. His minor-league track record suggests that he'll eventually hit. Maybe he won't. But the Marlins need to quit fooling around and find out.
Cody Ross stole home last night against the Cubs in a double-steal with Cameron Maybin. Watch the video here. It was a well-designed gamble, as Tommy Hutton explains on the replay. According to the Sun-Sentinel, it was the ninth steal of home plate in Marlins history. My, question, though, is whether this was the first double-steal of home plate in team history. Anyone have any idea?
Read more...Part of the charm of Opening Day is that anything seems possible, including the idea that Emilio Bonifacio actually can hit. You might remember Bonifacio; baseball history always will. On a beautiful, sun-splashed day in Florida last year, the Marlins' Opening Day leadoff hitter smacked four hits, scored four runs, stole three bases and raced around the bases with the first Opening Day inside-the-park home run since one by Carl Yastrzemski in 1968.
Bonifacio never hit another home run in 2009 - or much of anything else. He hit like it was, well, 1968. There were 155 players last year who were given enough playing time to qualify for the batting title. Bonifacio had the worst OPS of all of them.
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
PA AB R H HR RBI BB BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
Dan Uggla 683 611 105 172 27 90 48 .282 .339 .480 .818 112
Hanley Ramirez 700 633 119 185 17 59 56 .292 .353 .480 .833 116
Miguel Cabrera 676 576 112 195 26 114 86 .339 .430 .568 .998 159
Tonight, facing Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels, Fredi has decided to bench Jeremy Hermida, move Cody Ross to right field, and play Emilio Bonifacio at center. The reason ostensibly being that Hermida does not hit well against lefties (true), and Bonifacio would be an improvement. While B-Face is technically an improvement over Hermida (.325 OBP vs. Hermida's .277 against lefties), this should not be a permanent solution. It is time the team called up Cameron Maybin. Before he was sent down to Triple-A New Orleans in May, Maybin was OBPing a paltry .265 against lefties. After almost 70 games in New Orleans, he is OBPing at a .415 pace.
Well, that wasn't how I expected things to go...
On the plus side, Ted stumbled upon this last night:
Not to pile on Hermida here, but at what point do the Marlins consider calling Cameron Maybin back up and moving Cody Ross to right field? Hermida hasn't been terrible (his OPS+ is currently 92, which is only slightly below average), but Maybin has been putting up much better numbers in triple-A New Orleans (.415 OBP and 6 triples). Also, Maybin appears to be a better leadoff option than Chris Coghlan. The Marlins made a logical move trading for Nick Johnson in order to bench Emilio Bonifacio, will they apply their logic to Hermida, the one-time future of the franchise?
One other thought: start Josh Johnson in right field on days he doesn't pitch. Can't argue with that power...
I would consider myself an optimist, but I won't lie. It is very hard to feel optimistic about the Florida Marlins these days. About a month ago, they finished off an 11-1 opening two weeks of the season and they were the talk of the league. Since then? Eight wins, twenty-two losses. Thirty games, spanning thirty-two days, and the club played .267% ball. Wow. Add on to that the misery of the two latest defeats, when the team had a great chance to secure a big pick-me-up, only to falter late, again. But, instead of piling on or waxing poetic about this miserable stretch, I will briefly note things that we should be optimistic about.
The Marlins are off today, but there are a few things worth mentioning.
Cameron Maybin was optioned to Triple-A New Orleans after yesterday's ballgame. I suppose it's the right move as he is struggling and should not be in the lineup now. He's also the kind of player that isn't suited for a reserve role. He needs to get at-bats and work things out, and now he can do that without being a drag on the everyday lineup. He got off to a slow start at Double-A last year before turning it around and having a great September at the major-league level. Hopefully history repeats itself and he can join the club in July or August and provide a similar impact.
Taking Maybin's spot on the roster is pitcher John Corona Koronka, who has been called up from New Orleans to make Tuesday's start. This move was a bit curious, as it seemed like the bullpen arms of Dan Meyer, Burke Badenhop, or Hayden Penn could have made this start without necessitating a roster move. But, the team will need a fifth starter soon and if Koronka was the guy for that, then this was the time to do it (based on his pitching schedule). The team might have also specifically wanted a lefty and did not want to jeopardize another prospect (Sean West) by throwing him into the fire too soon. In Koronka's last three starts in New Orleans he has gone 16 innings and allowed just 3 ER.
Andrew Miller made a rehab start last week at Single-A Jupiter. Miller went four innings, giving up one run on four hits with three Ks and one walk. He is scheduled to pitch for Double-A Jacksonville tonight, whereupon he could return to the rotation. The Fish will need Miller to put up some quality starts while Anibal Sanchez is on the DL.
When the Marlins return to Miami on Friday, they will officially open a 3-game series with the Dodgers at Land Shark Stadium. Naming rights to the former Dolphin Stadium were sold to Anhueser-Busch, who owns the beer. Land Shark is marketed as a part of Jimmy Buffett's Margaritaville brand, which means fans will likely hear more Buffett songs at the stadium (not necessarily a good thing). Also, Marlins fans will probably get a break from hearing tired jokes about the Marlins player-development model, as everyone else will probably make fun of the Jimmy Buffett connection (for good reason). Dave thinks Dolphins owner Stephen Ross (who also owns the stadium) should have named the stadium Hurricane Reef Stadium, since Hurricane Reef is a superior beer with South Florida roots.
It's the 13th anniversary of the Marlins first no-hitter, thrown by Al Leiter. On May 11th, 1996 he shut down the Rockies, striking out 6 while only walking 2 and hitting Ellis Burks with a pitch. Al also got two double plays from the defense. The Marlins won 11-0, helped by home runs from Charles Johnson and Terry Pendleton. Cheers to Al.
Image via BaseballReference.org
Joe Frisaro informs us that the Marlins have called up Chris Coghlan from Triple-A New Orleans. His natural position is second-base, but I doubt the Marlins are worried enough about Dan Uggla's start to bench him at this point. Ted loves Coghlan, and would not mind seeing him take the 3B job from B-Face, but Frisaro notes that Coghlan played left field on Thursday night, possibly giving the Fish an opportunity to sit Cameron Maybin and shuffle the outfield. I'm not so sure about that move, but as the Marlins reiterated to me when I faxed them my resume after Joe Girardi was fired, they are not interested in my insights.
At any rate, he had posted a .418 on-base percentage in New Orleans, so I think he deserves a shot in the everyday lineup.
With a full month of play finished, I think it's time we took a look at the everyday lineup and identified a few of the weak links. Though Dan Uggla is off to a somewhat slow start, batting .202 and OPSing .696 (OPS+ 82), the two weakest spots in the order are Cameron Maybin and Emilio Bonifacio. Their lines so far this season:
| | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | |
| Bonifacio | 112 | 17 | 30 | 6 | 7 | 28 | .268 | .311 | .330 | .641 | 69 | |
| Maybin | 77 | 9 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 29 | .208 | .282 | .325 | .607 | 59 |
In the eyes of the organization, both have terrific upside, and that's why the team is patient.I have no problem with Beinfest giving a vote of confidence to the media (you certainly don't want him trashing his own players and giving them inferiority complexes). However, at some point, if either of these two does not improve their offensive production, the team must consider benching one or both of them. And they certainly have a lot of options on the table."With the young guys, they all have different time tables," Beinfest said. "It's all about making the adjustments, learning the pitchers, those types of things. It happens differently for different guys.
"It's hard to say this guy has this many at-bats, and we know for sure about him. It's not just that. You have to look at the mental aspect of the player. Is he up or down? Is he handling it? Is he making the adjustments."
Because both are handling the adversity, the team is sticking with them.
"Both of them. They're confident in their abilities, and they're working through," Beinfest said.
We'll be making our own predictions for 2009 soon, but here is a sample of what everyone else is predicting for the Marlins in 2009.
Being that the Marlins so often rely on contributions from rookies, the team almost always has at least one player on Rookie of the Year watch lists. Though this year's class won't match the 2006 class that featured three Marlins among the top four vote-getters in ROY voting (including award-winner SS1a). Nonetheless, many are expecting to see some Marlins in the hunt. Let's take a look at the Marlins' rookie class, and assess their chances of winning the award (all numerical estimates completely arbitrary).1 One quick note, I'm only citing the most elementary of statistics, since those are the only which most ROY voters care about (mention WARP3 to a voter, and he'll probably call you a nerd and make a lame joke).1. Cameron Maybin, CF: Future Former Marlin Maybin has the starting centerfielder job pretty much locked up, so he'll have the best chance among the Marlins' rookies to make a good impression. In September call-up action, he did not disappoint, going 16 for 32 while stealing 4 bases. Maybin strikes out a bit much for a leadoff hitter (so he'll fit in with the rest of the team just fine), and he won't put up gaudy power numbers, but he already has buzz, which makes a big difference in awards voting. When Hanley Ramirez won ROY in 2006, he hit .292, OPSed .833, hit 17 home runs, and stole 51 bases from the leadoff spot. If he can match those numbers and not embarrass himself on defense, then he'll have a great shot. I'm giving him a 40% chance.
2. Gaby Sanchez, 1B: I was pretty optimistic about Sanchez heading into Spring Training, but he has not stood out at all. As Ted pointed out, Sanchez may have to start the season. Nonetheless, FanGraphs thinks he'll be good for 15 home runs and 65 RBI if he can get into the starting lineup. That's not bad, but it won't win him ROY. I'm giving him a 12% chance, since he'll get decent protection in the batting order.
3. Emilio Bonifacio, 2B: Bonifacio has two things going against him. First, he's stuck behind Dan Uggla, and only an injury would open up the starting job for him. Second, in the words of FanGraph's Marc Hulet, "He's really fast, doesn’t walk enough and strikes out too much." I'm giving Emilio a 0.4% chance at winning ROY.
1 John Baker and Dallas McPherson have too much service time to qualify as rookies.
Image via espn.com
Three Up
Highly touted and bearing huge expectations, Cameron Maybin has had a solid spring and erased any doubts that he would be the opening day centerfielder and perhaps the leadoff hitter. He is 12 for 33 with one homer and looks every bit the rookie of the year candidate many believe he will be. He needs to be the new table setter of the lineup with Hanley Ramirez moving to the three-hole. Expect a lot of singles and methodically advancing along the base paths.
The aptly described, "tall, dark and Mormon," Josh Johnson has gone a total of eleven innings in his three appearances and has yielded just one run while striking out seven. He is certainly in the battle for the title of opening day starter ace. He had a solid early return from the Tommy John surgery last summer and was remarkably consistent. Consistency is usually something lacking in young pitchers and a young staff. Hopefully he can provide that and be the stopper at the top of the rotation.
Catcher John Baker has had a stellar 9-20 start at the plate with three walks giving him a .522 OBP. Nice for a guy who was our number two hitter in the lineup towards the end of last year and might find himself there again this year. He fits right in line with the front office's new philosophy at the plate (fewer K's and HR's, better BA and OBP). While he obviously doesn't have the prototypical speed for the two spot, he may be our best option to sandwich between Cameron Maybin and Hanley Ramirez.
Honarable Mention: Burke Badenhop has not allowed a run in seven innings spread across four appearances.
Three Down
Andrew Miller has had a couple rough outings. In his opener he allowed six runs in one and a third inning. He has improved each outing and says he feels he is getting more command but the season is just weeks away and we need him as the lefty in our staff. The team will probably go with a four man rotation the first couple weeks of the season, so Miller might need to be the guy who gets a couple more rehab starts in the minors.
Another player bearing some expectations this spring is Gaby Sanchez. Unfortunately, a first base job that looked like his to win is now the one he is losing. He is just 4 for 25 with six strikeouts at the plate and has made three errors in the field. I think this will be an intriguing decision to see if he makes the club. He proved he was too good for AA, and the Pacific Coast League (AAA) won't provide a tougher test (PCL is a hitting league, not pitching) if he goes there. He could start out as a bench player, but it would be a tough adjustment to getting just a several at-bats per week.
Taylor Tankersley has been given a large amount of opportunities to settle in as a lefty in the bullpen. This spring he isn't doing much to help his cause. He recently had an outing with six earned runs conceded and has only kept the scoreboard clean in two of his six appearances, all of which were an inning or less. He will always have an advantage making the club because he is a left-handed pitcher, but he may be out of options.
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