Hayes Won't Give Marlins Relief

So apparently there's this groundswell of support on Twitter for replacing John Buck with Brett Hayes in the starting lineup. This is normally something I'd favor (I'm all for pointing out the sunk-cost-fallacy thinking that often governs the Marlins' decisions - cough, Heath Bell, cough), but it just doesn't pass the smell test, so I went to the stats.

On the surface, it is pretty clear why everyone is clamoring for Hayes. He is slashing .295/.326/.386, compared  to Buck's slash line of .173/.306/.327. But once you look past those stats, it starts looking really ugly for Hayes.

First, consider that Hayes is striking out 28.3% of the tie and walking just 4.3% of the time. We could forgive that if he is hitting home runs at a Stantonian pace, but that ain't happening, ever. Buck strikes out a lot too (25.0%), but he can at least draw a walk with regularity (16.1% walk rate). 

Then there's our old war horse, BABIP. This tells you exactly why Hayes is raking and Buck is struggling:

Hayes: .419 BABIP (~.288 previous two seasons)

Buck: .203 BABIP (.283 career BABIP)

In his scant 46 plate appearances in 2012, Hayes has been excessively lucky. Maybe he can keep that BABIP high, but I wouldn't bet on it. Unless there is an injury slowing down Buck, I would expect his BABIP (and overall batting average) to improve as the season moves on. Replacing him with Buck might not be the prudent course of action here. 

Ozzie Guillen said this week "I'm not going to take the job from Buck. Hopefully, Buck will get out of his slump soon." Not that I think he looked at advanced stats to make this decision, but at least I agree with him.

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#WhiteWhine

Those protesters sound selfish. Speaking of which...

I'm sorry, I thought this was Twimerica.

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The Curse

A quick look at the Marlins Twitter Directory informs me that there are 5 Marlins on Twitter at the moment:

1. Chris Coghlan: Out for the season after injuring himself while giving Wes Helms a shaving cream pie after a walk-off base hit.
2. John Baker: Out for the season, just underwent Tommy John surgery.
3. Brett Hayes: Out for the season after separating his shoulder on a play at the plate this week.
4. Logan Morrison: Almost died at the hands of an Emilio Bonifacio foul ball this afternoon
5. Mike Stanton: Healthy so far.

Mike, please do Marlins fans a favor and deactivate your Twitter account now. It's only a matter of time before the Twitter curse catches up.

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Shouldn't Performance Enhancing Drugs Enhance Performance?

We are saved by a slow summer Friday by news that Unfrozen Caveman Catcher Ronny Paulino has been suspended 50 games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance. Allow me to be the 52nd person to say, huh? As Will Carroll put it in a tweet, "Does this finally prove they [PEDs] don't make a big difference? Will his 4 homers this year get *?" Amen, Will. Alternatively, Ted suggests that Krispy Kreme doughnuts have been added to the banned substance list. Either way, this is not the stat line you'd like to see if you found out your favorite team's catcher has been doping:

.529/.311/.354, 18 2B, 4 HR, 37 RBI (344 PA)

If PEDs up your OPS+ to 77, suffice it to say you're doing it wrong, Ronny. Confounding me further is the fact that he OPS+ed 99 last year, when he was (presumably) clean. Oy.

UPDATE via FishStripes: Paulino released the following statement: 

To control my weight this season, I used a dietary pill. Regretfully, I recently learned that the dietary pill contained a substance banned under Major League Baseball’s drug policy.

I am ashamed and saddened for disappointing and distracting my family, my teammates, the entire Florida Marlins’ organization, and baseball fans. My heartfelt and most sincere apology.

I accept full responsibility and all consequences for this mistake and therefore, choose not to challenge my suspension. I was irresponsible for failing to take all precautionary steps in confirming the approval of the dietary pill. Without a doubt, I have learned from my mistake.

Well, at least his excuse is league average. Brett Hayes, the starting job is now yours.

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The Near Future

Hanley is getting reinforcements.

The Marlins may or may not make the playoffs this year, but regardless, the prospect of having Chris Coghlan, Cameron Maybin, and Hanley Ramirez at the top of the lineup for the next four or so years has me salivating. Coghlan has put it together, hitting .309 with a .382 OBP after racking up 47 hits in August. If Maybin can produce the way he has in the minors (he hit .319 with a .399 OBP at Triple-A New Orleans this year), then he and Coghlan will make a formidable 1-2 punch in front of Ramirez at the 3-hole. The trio could be as successful as Ramirez, Dan Uggla, and Miguel Cabrera were at the top of the lineup in 2006. Here were their numbers for that year:

                                                                  
              PA  AB   R   H HR RBI BB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS OPS+
   Dan Uggla 683 611 105 172 27  90 48 .282 .339 .480 .818  112
Hanley Ramirez 700 633 119 185 17  59 56 .292 .353 .480 .833  116
Miguel Cabrera 676 576 112 195 26 114 86 .339 .430 .568 .998  159

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/6/2009.

Then there's Maybin's defense. I am quite happy to have these three guys locked in for the next few years.


Unrelated: Congratulations to Brett Hayes on his first career tater tot. Incidentally, he hit his home run off of Victor Garate, who was making his big league debut. Surely Tim Kurkjian took notice of this. This afternoon, the Fish go for their fourth sweep of the Nats this year, with Anibal Sanchez taking the hill against J.D. Martin.


AP Photo/Luis M. Alvarez via ESPN.com

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Meet the September Callups

Welcome back, now can we please keep Emilio Bonifacio out of the outfield?

Last night, the Marlins recalled Cameron Maybin from Triple-A New Orleans and DFA'd Luis Ayala (so much for that experiment). By making the move before September 1, the Marlins can add Maybin to the postseason roster if they make the playoffs (which is technically still possible). Today begins the first round of September callups, who are listed below. I'll update this post with names and commentary as more callups are announced.

The First Wave
Burke Badenhop, P
Rick VandenHurk, P
Brett Hayes, C

We already know plenty about Badenhop and Henricus, as they have both spent some time with the big club this year. Since the Marlins missed out on the Brad Penny derby, VandenHurk will likely get a start on Wednesday against Atlanta. With Volstad being sent down to the minors and the rest of the staff struggling, one would hope these two could contribute some quality starts and/or effective long relief if needed, but that may be asking too much (there's a reason they weren't on the 25-man roster...). Hayes seems merely a seat-filler at this point, he may get a start here and there to give Paulino and Baker a rest, but both seem well-rested due to their platoon situation.

More Callups
Andy Gonzalez, SS
Andrew Miller, LHP
Chris Volstad, RHP
Gaby Sanchez, 1B

Gonzalez becomes the de facto backup shortstop, since the only other option is Emilio Bonifacio. The Marlins recalled Miller from Triple-A. He will probably be used in long relief situations, though he could get a spot start in an emergency. Volstad will probably be used the same way. As for Sanchez, it's probably the bench for him.

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