John Buck Sure Knows How to Make the Marlins Regret Trading Him

Hey, remember a few months ago when John Buck was tearing up the NL and making the Marlins front office look stupid for giving up on him at the worst possible time? Well strap in, because it's time for an episode of Small Sample Size Theater!

On April 12th, I left a note to myself in our CMS:

At the time, Buck was slashing .351/.350/.865 with an absurd 6 home runs and 19 RBI in his first 40 plate appearances. It prompted articles like this from Hardball Talk, which pointed out that Buck had more RBI than the entire Marlins team at the time.

What has happened since then? Exactly what you'd expect. As of Monday morning, he's sporting a .210/.278/.390 slash line (better than his .192/.297/.347 from 2012 but worse than his career averages) with a 25.8% strikeout rate. He was especially putrid in June, hitting .165 and striking out 22 times in 84 plate appearances.

At least some things are still predictable.

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Hayes Won't Give Marlins Relief

So apparently there's this groundswell of support on Twitter for replacing John Buck with Brett Hayes in the starting lineup. This is normally something I'd favor (I'm all for pointing out the sunk-cost-fallacy thinking that often governs the Marlins' decisions - cough, Heath Bell, cough), but it just doesn't pass the smell test, so I went to the stats.

On the surface, it is pretty clear why everyone is clamoring for Hayes. He is slashing .295/.326/.386, compared  to Buck's slash line of .173/.306/.327. But once you look past those stats, it starts looking really ugly for Hayes.

First, consider that Hayes is striking out 28.3% of the tie and walking just 4.3% of the time. We could forgive that if he is hitting home runs at a Stantonian pace, but that ain't happening, ever. Buck strikes out a lot too (25.0%), but he can at least draw a walk with regularity (16.1% walk rate). 

Then there's our old war horse, BABIP. This tells you exactly why Hayes is raking and Buck is struggling:

Hayes: .419 BABIP (~.288 previous two seasons)

Buck: .203 BABIP (.283 career BABIP)

In his scant 46 plate appearances in 2012, Hayes has been excessively lucky. Maybe he can keep that BABIP high, but I wouldn't bet on it. Unless there is an injury slowing down Buck, I would expect his BABIP (and overall batting average) to improve as the season moves on. Replacing him with Buck might not be the prudent course of action here. 

Ozzie Guillen said this week "I'm not going to take the job from Buck. Hopefully, Buck will get out of his slump soon." Not that I think he looked at advanced stats to make this decision, but at least I agree with him.

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Misadventures of the Tangerine Troops, Vol. III (The Inning from Hell)

The Marlins farted away a game in epic fashion Saturday night, and in the process gave us a nominee for worst fuckup of the season. There are so many tangerine dunce caps to go around for Saturday's effort, perhaps the beat writers will start mentioning them in the same breath as Lo Viste t-shirts.

"Closer" (I'm using that word lightly here) Heath Bell entered the game in the top of the ninth inning with a 4-1 lead over the Houston Astros. At the time the Marlins' win expectancy was 97%. After Chris Snyder flew out to left field to start the inning, that number rose to 99%. Bell proceeded to give up the following:

• Double to Jose Altuve, advanced to third when Emilio Bonifacio bobbled the ball after it bounced off the right-center wall
• RBI single to Travis Buck

Altuve's double, it bears mentioning, was totally catchable, but Bonifacio took a bad angle on the ball and had to reach at an awkward angle in order to make a catch (which he did unsuccessfully). It's okay, it's not like Bonifacio has been playing infield all his life (oh, wait...).

The Inning from Hell continued:

• Jordan Schafer reached base on a catcher's interference by John Buck. 
• Jed Lowrie flies out to left field.

Now there are two outs, and the Marlins still have a 2-run lead (albeit with 2 Astros on base). Miami's win expectancy is now at 93%

• JD Martinez hits an RBI single, Schafer advances to third
• Carlos Lee hits an RBI single, Justin Maxwell (pinch-running for Martinez) advances to third

Now the score is tied, and Bell's afternoon is mercifully over. Randy Choate steps in to face B Bogusevic, and then this happens: 

Oy.

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Misadventures of the Tangerine Troops, Vol. II

John Buck went 2-4 with an RBI, but still manages to get Least Valuable Player honors for last night's frustrating loss to the Phillies (Joe Blanton? Really?!).

There was this stumbling attempt to catch a foul pop-up. This was no crime, the ball was really uncatchable, but it was funny nonetheless.

Later, a more serious offense, when he dropped another foul pop-up. Albeit the degree of difficulty was high (he was leaning over the dugout railing), but if you're a big league catcher stealing making $6 million, and the ball hits your glove, you have to come up with that.

Just a couple pitches later, Ty Wigginton hit a long solo home run to extend the Phillies lead.

And to round things off in the ninth inning, the Marlins put the tying runs on base with just one out. John Buck predictably hit into a game ending double play (-.149 WPA).

Tangerine dunce hat for you Mr. Buck! Welcome to the club.

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It wasn't Twitter

Angry Twitter Bird is nobody's scapegoat

John Buck says he and other teammates warned Logan Morrison that he was expending too much energy on Twitter:

On Monday, catcher John Buck told the Miami Herald he and "several" other veterans on the team advised LoMo to spend a little less time coming up with witty remarks on the social media service and more time focusing on baseball.

"He's an awesome dude, a great teammate and a great person," Buck said, but he had become known too much for his social media presence, and not enough for his baseball skills.

"Just don't let it be the main focus of who you are, because you're a pretty dang good baseball player. That, for him, I think that should be good enough. And the other good stuff coming out of him, being who he is, should be icing on the cake. It shouldn't be flip-flopped, which I think it has become."

As you might expect, I don't think Twitter is to blame for LoMo's decline at the plate:

But Buck and his teammates (he did not specify to the Herald which teammates had joined him in warning LoMo about the perils of Twitter) seem to be missing an important point when it comes to Twitter: that it is possible to use the service without it becoming a "distraction."

People expect professional athletes to take a monastic approach to their sport. Only complete devotion to improving themselves is enough to satisfy the fans. And athletes, coaches, and front offices for the most part share this belief. If one player struggles (as Morrison has since early June), all of a sudden the hour or so a day he spends on Twitter signifies an unacceptable work ethic.

But when LoMo was tearing the cover off the ball in April and May, no one seemed to think that Twitter was preventing him from becoming a better baseball player.

To put it another way, if instead of tweeting, Morrison spent most of his time learning to speak Spanish and reading the complete works of Hemingway, would his teammates say "don't let it be the main focus of who you are"?

The point is not that Twitter is as worthwhile a hobby as learning another language, but that neither are detrimental to one's skill at baseball. To cite either as a cause of Morrison's declining batting average is beyond ridiculous.

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Awesome or Gross?

In addition to being a fucking boss, Josh Johnson broke Marlins catcher John Buck's cup on Saturday:

via John Buck's Twitter

Awesome? Gross? Both?

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John Buck's Catcher Helmet

In addition to the usual Opening Day bells and whistles, we got our first glimpse of new Marlins catcher John Buck's catcher's mask this weekend. I love it, it's elegantly designed and not too complex (so you can see it pretty clearly on television). It's positively Guy Harvey-esque.

As more catchers opt for the hockey-style mask over the traditional mask, we'll begin seeing more elaborate designs like the one on Buck's mask. Buck's design strikes the right balance; it's got enough going on to catch your eye, but not so much that it becomes an amorphous blob on TV. His mask was the only thing not painful to watch during Sunday's game.

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What Just Happened?

It was a crazy day for Marlins roster transactions, let's get straight to it. First in unconventional Marlins fashion the team signed free agent catcher John Buck to a three-year, $18 million deal. Then out of nowhere, this evening they traded Dan Uggla to the Braves for Omar Infante and LHP Mike Dunn. First reaction:


And that seemed to be the reaction of most Marlins fans/followers. I won't try to totally defend this move, but I do see some upside. For the last few years we have been complaining about not having enough guys that hit for average instead of hitting for power. We also all know the bullpen issues. But let's be honest, Uggla deserved better and we deserved better. This is no prize haul. We'll have more later. In the meantime you can find more thoughts on Twitter here and here. Also check out MarlinManiac: Twitter and Website.

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