Solidifying the Roster: Pitchers

With opening day just under a week away, the team is finalizing it's roster. For an outlook on the position players, go to Dave's roundup from Friday.

Who's In (Starters)

Josh Johnson
Ricky Nolasco
Anibal Sanchez
Chris Volstad
Clay Hensley

The disappointment of the spring is definitely the performance of the two left-handers competing for a starting job. It was thought that whichever of Andrew Miller or Sean West had the better spring would be the sole southpaw in the rotation. Instead, both struggled and neither have made it. It has prompted many, including myself, to ask of Miller, "If not now, then when?"

The good news is that the righties fighting for spots have picked up the slack. Clay Hensley, a non-roster invitee who was a long shot to make the club, has been dominant. In his 16 innings of work, he's allowed just 1 earned run with a strikeout-walk ratio of 11-1. He's definitely earned it. I'm a bit upset that Rick Vandenhurk's noticeable improvement most likely will not get him a roster spot, but hopefully he keeps it up and is ready for the inevitable injury.

Who's In (Bullpen)

Leo Nunez (CL)
Brian Sanches
Jose Veras
Burke Badenhop
Renyel Pinto
Dan Meyer

On The Bubble (Bullpen)

Tim Wood
Rick Vandenhurk
Seth McClung

It hurts to look at this. The bullpen has been cause for concern the last couple years and this roster outlook just doesn't look like much improvement. Jose Veras will be the lone reclamation project to make the club, but he is still a question mark. In fact everyone on these lists seems to have questions surrounding them. Can Leo Nunez be an effective closer for an entire season? Could either Dan meyer or RenyEl Pinto be a reliable option to retire tough left-handed hitters?

As for the final spot, Joe Capozzi says don't rule out Vandenhurk, because his ability to make a spot start is valuable. True, but Burke Badenhop also fits that role. My money would be on Tim Wood. In his 9 innings pitched this spring, he has allowed just 1 earned run.

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Solidifying the Roster: Positional Players

With opening day just over a week away, the Marlins are making their final roster moves. Let's take a look at how things are shaping up, starting with the positional players.

Who's In (Infielders)

• John Baker
• Emilio Bonifacio
• Jorge Cantu
• Wes Helms
• Ronnie Paulino
• Hanley Ramirez
• Dan Uggla

The Baker/Paulino platoon was set in stone well before Spring Training started. Bonifacio is the new Alfredo Amezega, except less useful and more liable to induce a heart attack. He has played 50 innings in the outfield this spring, which concerns me. Helms returns as the wise old man. Uggla/Ramirez remain one of the best hitting/worst fielding double-play combinations in baseball. Jorge Cantu will be at third base this year, where he is less of a defensive liability.

Who's In (Outfielders)

• Chris Coghlan
• Cameron Maybin
• Cody Ross

Until the inevitable Mike Stanton call-up, this is your starting outfield. Things could change if Uggla gets traded midseason, since Coghlan's natural positing is 2B (and I'm optimistically thinking he wouldn't be replaced with Bonifacio).

On the Bubble

• Brian Barden
• Brett Carroll
• Scott Cousins
• Jai Miller
• Logan Morrison
• Bryan Petersen
• Gaby Sanchez

Barden could steal the fourth outfield spot since he can play infield and outfield (some say he is a lock for the 5th outfield spot, with Bonifacio taking the 4th spot - groans all around). I'm frankly miffed that Boni is considered to be a better reserve outfielder option than Carroll. Carroll wins on defense (which is the most important quality in a reserve outfielder, since he will often be a late-inning defensive replacement), and I think we all know Emilio cannot hit major league pitching. Clearly there is blackmail involved. It looks like Sanchez may beat out Morrison for the first-base job, which is what I expected coming into Spring Training. Things don't look so good for Miller, Cousins, or Petersen, but I'm sure that will surprise no one.

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Not Funny, Baseball America

Baseball America listed the top ten prospects in the Marlins organization last week. You can read their analysis here. What I found interesting, though, was BA's projected 2012 Marlins lineup:

Catcher: Kyle Skipworth
First Base: Logan Morrison
Second Base: Chris Coghlan
Third Base: Dan Uggla
Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez
Left Field: Isaac Galloway
Center Field: Cameron Maybin
Right Field: Mike Stanton
No. 1 Starter: Josh Johnson
No. 2 Starter: Chad James
No. 3 Starter: Ricky Nolasco
No. 4 Starter: Chris Volstad
No. 5 Starter: Sean West
Closer: Ryan Tucker

Apparently, no one at Baseball America has heard of the Florida Marlins, because their is no way that Dan Uggla, Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, and Ricky Nolasco will all be on the team by the time 2010 rolls around. At least half of that quartet will join the Marlins Diaspora in the next two years.


h/t: FishStripes

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The Requisite "Next Year Will Be Better" Post

The time has come for some end-of-season reflection, so here are my thoughts on the 2009 season. Last year, the Marlins were considered to be a bit of an overachieving team, finishing 84-77 despite a Pythagorean W-L of 81-81. 2009 was a similar story, with the Marlins currently sitting 86-74 with a Pythagorean W-L of 82-78. Indeed, were it not for a dismal month of May, during which the team went 9-20, the Marlins could have very easily made the playoffs in an alternate universe. So while I am disappointed 2009 did not go better, I also understand that the Marlins played a bit above expectations.

I won't rehash all the failings of the team in 2009, from the bullpen nightmares to the inconsistent starting pitching, but will instead use 2009 as a guide for what the Marlins need to accomplish to improve in 2010.

Offensively, the Marlins appear due for a dropoff next year. At this point they have scored the fifth most runs in the National League while posting the fourth highest OBP and fifth highest OPS (and that was with Emilio Bonifacio starting most of the season!). But it appears highly likely that the team will lose at least two of the trio of Nick Johnson, Dan Uggla, and Jorge Cantu to free agency and/or arbitration. While it is possible that their numbers can be replaced by some of the younger players due to come up in 2010 (Gaby Sanchez, Logan Morrison, ?), I'm not so enthusiastic that the offense will necessarily continue humming along next year.

That is not to say all hope is lost. The Fish still possess Hanley Ramirez, one of the most talented players in the game who creates runs no matter who is batting around him. And Chris Coghlan has turned himself into an effective OBP machine hitting leadoff. If an effective hitter can take residence between the two in the lineup (perhaps Maybin?), then the Marlins will trot out a formidable top of the order every day next year. Hopefully the front office doesn't try to convince themselves that Bonifacio could start at second if Dan Uggla does not return.

But as we learned this year, a good offense cannot win the division without consistently effective starting pitching. Not to get all Joe Morgan here, but aside from Josh Johnson, the Marlins' rotation in 2009 was a bit of a roller-coaster ride. Ricky Nolasco struggled out of the gate, and never fully recaptured his effective 2008 form. Chris Volstad showed promise, but gave up 29 home runs over the same number of starts, which limited his effectiveness. Andrew Miller and Anibal Sanchez battled injuries all year, and Sean West showed flashes of brilliance but struggled with his control, walking 44 batters over 103 innings. All six of these pitchers had some great outings during the year, but they were all too often punctuated by disappointing outings, with the exception of Johnson, who proved himself worthy of at least one lame Photoshop.

If the Marlins wish to compete next year, they will need to get more quality starts out of their rotation. They got 73 through the first 160 games of 2009, which puts them at 13th in the NL. To me, this is the most important statistic to watch in 2010, as it will tell you how well the young pitching staff will be at logging low-scoring innings.

Then there is the bullpen. Though the team has publicly said they are comfortable bringing back Matt Lindstrom and Leo Nunez, I'm not convinced. We'll see what they have to say after the dust has settled on the 2009 season and Fredi Gonzalez does not have to worry about keeping the clubhouse peaceful. The Marlins had some good success from 2004-2006 picking up closers off the scrap heap (Armando Benitez, Todd Jones, even Joe Borowski) and letting them pitch; perhaps it may be time to try that again (although they are always liable to end up with another Jorge Julio/Kevin Gregg situation...).

Until all the offseason roster shake-ups are done, I am loathe to make any predictions about next year. Nevertheless, I feel I am justified in being optimistic about 2010.

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Introducing Ronny Paulino

The Marlins traded for catcher Ronny Paulino over the weekend, sending RHP Hector Correa to the Giants in return. The move effectively closed debate on the catchers the team will employ on opening day, as Mike Rabelo was optioned to AAA-New Orleans the same day. The Marlins will have John Baker starting, with Paulino playing backup.

While it would seem odd that the Fish would target a catcher via trade, their intentions become a bit more clear when you look at Paulino's and Baker's batting splits. Against left-handed pitchers, Paulino has hit .355/.417/.498 over his career, with 8 home runs and 42 RBI in 259 at bats. Meanwhile, Baker has hit .327/.417/.487 against right-handed pitchers, with 4 home runs and 24 RBI in 150 at-bats. If their career numbers hold up (which is not a given, since both have small sample sizes), this could turn out to be an effective platoon combination at the plate. However, if Paulino cannot develop a good relationship with the pitching staff, he could see less playing time. We'll have to watch this situation play out, but with Larry Beinfast's track record (he did pluck Cody Ross seemingly out of thin air), I'm willing to give the Marlins the benefit of the doubt on this one.


Image via mlb.com

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Projecting the Opening Day Roster: Pitchers

Starting Rotation

Ricky Nolasco
Josh Johnson
Chris Volstad
Anibal Sanchez
Andrew Miller

This just about set in stone. The only question that remains is whether it will be Sanchez or Miller that is deemed the fifth starter and will open the season in the minors for some extra work before joining the club on April 18th. It was looking like Miller, but yesterday he threw six innings without allowing an earned run and has looked better each time he goes out. Sanchez has been no slouch, but maybe the team wants a lefty to begin the season. Who knows?

Bullpen

Locks
Matt Lindstrom
Leo Nunez
Renyel Pinto
Logan Kensing

Others
Rick VandenHurk
Kiko Calero
Carlos Martinez
Dan Meyer
John Koronko
Scott Proctor (DL)

The normal bullpen would have seven spots, but it could be eight to start the season if Fredi Gonzalez decides he wants to use the roster spot vacated by the fifth starter to be an extra bullpen arm. I think that is what will happen since the bullpen is the biggest remaining position battle and early in the season the starters might be on pitch counts so the bullpen needs to be deep. If that's the case then the decision would seem simple. Proctor will be on the disabled list and one of the two lefties (Meyer or Koronka) would be sent to the minors or released. If we go with the conventonal seven to begin with, the last cut would be one of the following three, Martinez, Calero, VandenHurk. I have no clue which guy would go. Martinez and Calero have been good and VandenHurk is kind of an unknown because of his time with the WBC. If Lindstrom starts the season on the DL, which is still a possibility, then this last cut would be unnecessary.

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Projecting the Opening Day Roster: Position Players

Spots: 13, although it could be as much 14 depending on what Fredi Gonzalez will do while the 5th starter's spot is vacant¹. He could use it to get an extra look at the candidates for the last position player or he might have an extra bullpen arm for the time being.

Guaranteed Starters (7)
John Baker (C)
Jorge Cantu (1B or 3B)
Dan Uggla (2B)
Hanley Ramirez (SS)
Jeremy Hermida (LF)
Cameron Maybin (CF)
Cody Ross (RF)

Guaranteed Reserve (1)
Wes Helms (1B and 3B)
Alfredo Amezaga (Everywhere, but he will open the season on the DL)

Candidates
Brett Carroll: He is seeming more and more like a lock for the 4th outfield spot. We know his defense is his greatest attribute. He can play all three spots and has a great arm. He has also done much to help his cause at the plate this spring, going 12-27 with a healthy 1.146% OPS. I probably should have put him in the guaranteed reserve column but you are never really 100% sure.

Dallas MacPherson: He was seemingly a good bet to make the club, but an injury and subpar play have put his status in question. One thing in his favor is that he is out of options,² but his high K-rate and low OBP don't exactly fit into the team's new offensive philosophy. At this point I think he is a complete toss-up.

Robert Andino: He is another player who is out of options, which gives him a better chance of making the club. He has also played some outfield and is trying to widen his role. But he too has struggled a bit this spring and remains a question mark. Amezaga being on the DL helps Robert and he will probably stick around in that role to start the season, but shouldn't get too comfortable.

Emilio Bonifacio: He has done a lot this spring. He will probably win the inaugural Marlins Die-Hards Spring Ironman Award for logging the most at-bats and innings during spring training. He's posted respectable numbers at the plate and is the kind of table setter the Marlins would like to have in their lineup. Plus the amount of time he's spent playing third base recently leads me to believe he may get some starts there.

Gaby Sanchez: I've mentioned him before and unfortunately a job that was his to win, I don't think he has won it. He hasn't looked great and has battled a slight knee injury. He still has about ten days though and can still prove to us why he was bearing some high expectations this offseason.

Mike Rabelo: I admittedly don't know much about the backup catching position. Both Rabelo and Brett Hayes have not gotten a lot of at bats. I assume Rabelo will probably win out based on seniority but who knows?

Brett Hayes: see above

I've listed seven players in this category. For the opening day roster it must be reduced to five or six. The first to go would obviously be one of the backup catchers, most likely Brett Hayes. If the organization wants the last roster spot to evaluate bullpen arms, then I think Gaby Sanchez will probably go to AAA and Dallas MacPherson will stick around for his shot (pending his health). This would give us the thirteen position players for the opening day roster. When Amezaga comes back from the disabled list the club will have a huge decision on whether to "DFA" a player like MacPherson or Robert Andino or send somebody with options (perhaps Emilio Bonifacio) to the minors. I have no guesses when it comes to that.

¹ Fredi Gonzalez has stated that due to the early off days in the schedule, the club wont need a 5th starter until April 18th and that pitcher will not be activated until that date.

² A player can only be outrighted to the minor leagues a certain number of times. When he is out of "options" then he must be designated for assignment, meaning he is put on waivers and if no claim is made then becomes a free agent.

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