To the surprise of no one

Someone doesn't want to play third base all of a sudden.

Or does he?

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More on Jose Reyes

As you are well aware, Last night the Marlins and Jose Reyes agreed to a deal, pending a physical. It was first reported as a six year deal for $106 million. It is actually for $102 million, with a team option for a seventh year. They can decline it at that time with a $4 million buyout. Also of note, there is no no-trade clause in this contract. The Marlins are notorious for never budging from the stance of not offering no-trade clauses.

On the surface, this is a fantastic get for the new Marlins. While the team didn't have a need for a shortstop, this signing essentially fills the black hole at third base by shifting Hanley Ramirez to the hot corner. There's been reports that he's unhappy and won't do it, but it's likely just speculation. ESPN has written he's already agreed to move. Hanley's defense at short has suffered the past few season. Reyes isn't a terrific defender like some are suggesting, but he's an improvement over Hanley and Hanley is an improvement over most third basemen we've employed the last several years.

Reyes also gives the Marlins something they've sorely been missing, a leadoff hitter. For years it seems the team has been looking to alter their lineup to get more on-base guys and less power hitters. Even after trading Dan Uggla though, the Fish had trouble at the top of the lineup. This move should solve that. Reyes has all the attributes of Emilio Bonifacio, who the Marlins remain enamored with, but obviously to a much greater degree. Having Reyes set the table for Hanley and Mike Stanton is a great lineup.

The debate about this signing is about the risk involved. Jose Reyes has had injuries the last few seasons. He barely played in 2009. In 2010 and 2011 he missed a total of 65 games. Not only the missed games, but the fact he is a player that relies on speed and athleticism has some worried. If those tools begin to erode, he may not be a guy who is worth $17 million a year. But, when your the Marlins, you need to assume a greater risk than usual. Even so, there are contrasting opinions about just how risky this is; see here and here. In the end, it's hard to measure. We should just hope for the best. If his average seasons are anything like 2010 or 2011, it will definitely be worth it.

Two things make this a very interesting move: One, it's the biggest signing in Marlins history (at least for now) and two, the team has signed a star from a division rival who I hated. There's not much to say about point number one. We could see this coming as all indications were once the Marlins got a new stadium the team would abandon their penny-pinching ways and spend some money to field a good team. Point two intrigues me because I wonder what the fan reception will be. If the instant Twitter reaction means anything, he will be loved and maybe even push Hanley Ramirez aside as one of the most beloved players.

As usual, we focus on the eccentricities of Marlins fandom here at Marlins Diehards, so we'll be keeping an eye on that in the future.

Some free advertising for a friend of the blog: Check out the new t-shirt available at the SCWS, courtesy of the always hilarious @BoobiesNStanton

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Reyes Signs(!)

Buddies for life, you guys!

Jose Reyes will be a Miami Marlin, according to ESPN and others. Oh, and they're dead fucking serious about signing Pujols, too. We have not done this in awhile:

The Marlins are not playing around this winter. They expect their revenue to shoot up next year, they had few big contracts already on the books, and according my own third-hand info, they've built up a nice cash pile over the past few seasons. We used to call Jeff Loria "George Steinbrenner with less money," we may need to drop the "with less money" part now.


We'll have more on this later, of course, but suffice it to say I heartily approve.

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We're Going to Need a New Closer Nickname...

Heath Bell immediately after learning the clubhouse spread includes prosciutto-wrapped melon

If you had Heath Bell in the "First Marlins free agent signing of the winter" pool, you just hit the jackpot:

The Miami Marlins made their first big signing of the offseason Thursday night, signing former San Diego Padres closer Heath Bell to a 3-year, $27 million contract.

According to ESPN.com, Bell and the Marlins have all but agreed to the deal, which may include an option for a fourth year. Bell is expected to take a physical on Friday.

All that future revenue from the new stadium set to open next season must have been burning the figurative hole in the Marlins' pocket. Bell will make more money than all but Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson in 2012.

Two years ago, when the Marlins were reportedly in talks to acquire Bell via trade with San Diego, Ted noticed that Bell's rotundity might bode well for the Marlins. We can only hope the pattern of fat closers being lights-out for the Fish continues.

There has been quite a bit of debate about this signing on Twitter since the news broke. Here is the deal: The Marlins are paying $9 million a year for a guy who blew one fewer save than Leo Nunez/Juan Carlos Oviedo did last season. The similarities continue: both struck out roughly 7.5 batters per nine innings and had very nearly the same BABIP (.268 for Nunez and .261 for Bell). Nunez would have cost the Marlins $5-6 million in 2012. So that is $3 million for a few extra saves a year.

Bell posted 0.5 WAR in 2011, even with his gaudy saves total (43 - his third straight year of 40+ saves). In five years with San Diego, he put up 8.2 WAR, or 1.6 WAR per year. If that can be assumed to be a reasonable expected WAR/year, then the Marlins have just paid $5.5 million per win, which is a bit too much for my tastes.

There has been speculation that the signing sends a good message to other free agents that the Marlins are willing to pay for talent. This is nonsensical. The Marlins could send the same message by simply offering a lot of money to any of their other targets who either play every day or pitch more than 80 innings a year.

The other argument being thrown around is that the Marlins can overpay for a closer now that they will be raking in the dough from the new stadium. This ignores two important facts:

1. No team (not even the Yankees) has unlimited money. The $27 million being paid to Bell over the next 3 years could be better spent in a variety of ways, like locking up Mike Stanton long term.
2. As Michael Jong of Fish Stripes has pointed out, the Marlins have had much success in recent years patching together a bullpen on the cheap, and Steve Cishek and Edward Mujica could both have been viable closer options at a fraction of the cost of Bell. Just because you have the money does not mean you should spend it on a splashy free agent.

This is not to say that Bell is a bad closer. He will probably be good (so long as his dip from 11 to 7 K/9 in 2011 is not the beginning of a bad trend). But he is not worth $27 million, at least not in my opinion.

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How did we miss this?

From Dave Brown of BLS: BASEketball almost predicted the Marlins uniforms in 1998

This movie was a classic from our adolescence. How we did not remember this, I don't know. Bravo, @AnswerDave, bravo.

Image via BLS

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