Larry Beinfest: On the Way Out?

From USA Today:

The Marlins, according to two high-ranking executives but not permitted to speak publicly because the final decision will be made by owner Jeffrey Loria, are planning to fire Larry Beinfest, vice president/baseball operations, perhaps as early as next week. He is expected to be replaced by Dan Jennings, the Marlins' assistant general manager and vice president of player personnel.

This is not too surprising. I don't expect Guillen to get canned (if he survived the Castro controversy, he can survive one bad season). The shine has worn off of Beinfest in recent years, as the Heath Bell/John Buck signings and the long-term fallout from the Miguel Cabrera trade have overshadowed his earlier, more successful moves. Normally I'd be worried that we have fallen victim to recency bias, but the trend has become more clear (and more disappointing) over the past few years.

L-R: Beinfest, Guillen, Loria, and Samson in happier times

The trend aside, Beinfest has been in charge of personnel since 2002, so a change at the top could prove useful if only to shake things up. I am more concerned about his replacement than his firing. I cannot purport to know much about Jennings, but he has been in the Marlins front office for awhile, and the problems facing the team seem more organizational than individual. Unless Jennings has been a dissenting voice within the club (and there is some evidence to that effect), I'm skeptical that he will make a huge change as president of baseball operations.

In short, I am worried that Beinfest will become a scapegoat (though I don't necessarily oppose his firing), and bigger problems within the scouting and personnel department will be papered over by the new boss (who is part of the old regime). I don't think it is a bad idea to be skeptical when it comes to the machinations of Jeffrey Loria (which is obvious to regular readers of this blog), and this seems like a classic Loria move, one that looks more substantive than it actually is.

Also, what will become of Michael Hill? I'm not sure if he is above, equal to, or below Jennings in the Marlins org chart (both are listed as VPs on the Marlins website), but if the CBS report linked above is true, and he is in Beinfest's faction, he may not be on the job much longer either. I suspect we'll find out soon enough.