Area Man Predicts Sky Will Fall in 2014

Thursday, October 24, 2013

"What, me worry?"
Good news, everyone! Jeffrey Loria has finally released David Samson from his underground lair:
"We're getting ready for another season, and we're going to win more," Samson said. "I promise you this, we're not going to lose 100 games next year, not even close. Look what the Red Sox did. They had the same record we did in '12. They turned it around to be in the World Series in '13. Well, it's time for us to do the same. That's why we didn't book that concert in October. Why would we ever book something when we should be and will be playing playoff games?"
On one hand, very few teams lose 100 games two seasons in a row, so that part of Samson's prediction is not far fetched at all.

On the other hand, the Red Sox did a major roster overhaul last winter and had a payroll above $100 million this year, neither of which are going to be copied by the Marlins. Then there is the fact that the 2012 Red Sox weren't that bad. Sure, they lost 93 games, but their run differential would have predicted an 88-loss season (according to Baseball Reference). Miami's 2013 run differential was much worse (-133 to -72), predicting a 98-loss season.

Of course, with the Marlins pitching staff as it currently stands, it would take merely an average offense to improve the team's record next season. But the 2013 offense was historically bad (as we noted in our year-end round-up), so there is a lot of ground to make up.

Business consultants have a mantra: under-promise, over-deliver. Samson often does the opposite (as does Loria, who is the king of over-promising), and this case is no different. Nothing to see here folks, move along now...


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